Evidence Ledger

Performance

Walk-forward backtesting across 18 sports — historical simulation averages, not live P&L.

Universe · flat 1u on every EV+ game

EV, edge & policy filters

Recommendation · flat 1u or Kelly stakes

Predictions Healthy 11 minutes ago

Metrics Healthy 11 minutes ago

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

Bankroll Sim

AS OF Jul 3 · 3:59 PM EDT

Recommended Bets

37,544

passed EV + policy filters

Bet Hit Rate

57.2%

breakeven 52.4% +4.8pp

Recommendation ROI flat 1u

+27.9%

+7,685.0u net

37,544 bets · passed EV + policy filters

Universe ROI baseline

+8.9%

185,811 candidates · before any filtering

Moneyline ROI

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Spread ROI

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Over/Under ROI

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Equity Curve (All Sports)

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Track cumulative bankroll growth over time.

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What these numbers mean: Flat ROI = return per unit if you bet 1u on every recommended pick. Hit Rate = % of those picks that won (breakeven is 52.4% at -110). Recent Trend = average over the last 3 walk-forward folds only. Final Holdout = a set held back from all training — the cleanest out-of-sample test. All figures averaged across folds from Mar 2001 to Jun 2026.

All Sports — Backtest Summary

Historical simulation averages — not live tracked results.

Sport / Market	Best Model	Flat ROI	Hit Rate	Recent Trend	Final Holdout	Sample	Details
UF Ufc fighter_2_win	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 835 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +131.1%	73.8% +21.4pp vs. b/e	—	—	835 152 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc KO/TKO	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 295 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +174.6%	73.2% +20.8pp vs. b/e	+187.7% low sample last 3f · 12b	—	295 155 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc fighter_2_win.pre_forward_stage_20260705	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 835 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +131.1%	73.8% +21.4pp vs. b/e	—	—	835 152 folds	Deep Dive
CH Champions league Result	CatBoostModel	+66.2% 528 bets Kelly: +66.2% vs. Universe: +4.8%	40% -12.4pp vs. b/e	-46.1% low sample last 3f · 19b	—	528 96 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mls Over/Under	LightGBMModel	+65.2% 664 bets Kelly: +65.2% vs. Universe: +66.2%	86.6% +34.2pp vs. b/e	+41.4% low sample last 3f · 27b	—	664 102 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+61.7% 141 bets Kelly: +61.7% vs. Universe: +7.2%	63.1% +10.7pp vs. b/e	+81.3% ↑ 19.6pp vs all-time last 2f · 30b	—	141 49 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Spread	XGBoostModel	+53.8% 7,726 bets vs. Universe: +51.3%	64.4% +12pp vs. b/e	+26.6% ↓ 27.3pp vs all-time last 3f · 174b	—	7,726 70 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+50.1% 171 bets Kelly: +50.1% vs. Universe: +28.1%	59.6% +7.2pp vs. b/e	—	—	171 150 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+48.3% 330 bets Kelly: +48.3% vs. Universe: +19.3%	59.7% +7.3pp vs. b/e	+50.5% low sample last 2f · 17b	—	330 76 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+46.7% 154 bets Kelly: +46.7% vs. Universe: +6.8%	72.1% +19.7pp vs. b/e	—	—	154 137 folds	Deep Dive
NF Nfl Over/Under	LightGBMModel	+45.1% 403 bets Kelly: +45.1% vs. Universe: +14.4%	75.7% +23.3pp vs. b/e	+66.3% low sample last 3f · 15b	—	403 107 folds	Deep Dive
PR Primeiraliga Result	CatBoostModel	+42.3% 593 bets Kelly: +42.3% vs. Universe: -1.7%	33.4% -19pp vs. b/e	+64.2% ↑ 21.9pp vs all-time last 3f · 31b	—	593 123 folds	Deep Dive
LI Ligue1 Result	CatBoostModel	+39.1% 1,073 bets vs. Universe: -0.4%	34.3% -18.1pp vs. b/e	+53.1% ↑ 14pp vs all-time last 3f · 31b	—	1,073 122 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+38.7% 358 bets Kelly: +38.7% vs. Universe: +10.5%	66.5% +14.1pp vs. b/e	-4.4% low sample last 1f · 10b	—	358 43 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Spread	XGBoostModel	+38.3% 260 bets Kelly: +38.3% vs. Universe: -0.6%	65% +12.6pp vs. b/e	+51.6% low sample last 2f · 14b	—	260 27 folds	Deep Dive
NF Nfl Spread	LightGBMModel	+37.4% 466 bets Kelly: +37.4% vs. Universe: +15.5%	68% +15.6pp vs. b/e	-2.5% low sample last 2f · 10b	—	466 106 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Spread	XGBoostModel	+35.1% 2,441 bets Kelly: +35.1% vs. Universe: +12.8%	70.2% +17.8pp vs. b/e	—	—	2,441 137 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Spread	XGBoostModel	+34.4% 407 bets Kelly: +34.4% vs. Universe: +10.7%	69.3% +16.9pp vs. b/e	—	—	407 42 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Spread	XGBoostModel	+33.2% 1,203 bets Kelly: +33.2% vs. Universe: +16.7%	49.9% -2.5pp vs. b/e	+52.7% low sample last 3f · 26b	—	1,203 60 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mls Result	XGBoostModel	+32.7% 937 bets Kelly: +32.7% vs. Universe: -6.0%	44.7% -7.7pp vs. b/e	+10.0% low sample last 3f · 16b	—	937 350 folds	Deep Dive
SE Serie b Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+30.1% 1,309 bets Kelly: +30.1% vs. Universe: +14.2%	65% +12.6pp vs. b/e	+18.7% ↓ 11.4pp vs all-time last 3f · 37b	—	1,309 130 folds	Deep Dive
SE Serie b Result	CatBoostModel	+29.4% 588 bets Kelly: +29.4% vs. Universe: -11.0%	45.7% -6.7pp vs. b/e	+27.1% low sample last 3f · 29b	—	588 168 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+29.2% 2,068 bets Kelly: +29.2% vs. Universe: +8.1%	66.5% +14.1pp vs. b/e	—	—	2,068 136 folds	Deep Dive
LA Laliga Result	XGBoostModel	+26.7% 1,212 bets Kelly: +26.7% vs. Universe: -11.1%	31.4% -21pp vs. b/e	-24.5% ↓ 51.1pp vs all-time last 3f · 37b	—	1,212 173 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+26.3% 2,112 bets Kelly: +26.3% vs. Universe: +9.2%	64.3% +11.9pp vs. b/e	+15.3% ↓ 11pp vs all-time last 2f · 53b	—	2,112 58 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc Distance	XGBoostModel	+26.0% 284 bets Kelly: +26.0% vs. Universe: +8.1%	52.1% -0.3pp vs. b/e	+13.1% low sample last 3f · 9b	—	284 155 folds	Deep Dive
LI Ligamx Result	XGBoostModel	+25.1% 1,529 bets Kelly: +25.1% vs. Universe: -9.9%	31.7% -20.7pp vs. b/e	+41.1% ↑ 16.1pp vs all-time last 3f · 35b	—	1,529 164 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+21.0% 1,669 bets Kelly: +21.0% vs. Universe: +5.7%	54.5% +2.1pp vs. b/e	+12.2% low sample last 2f · 26b	—	1,669 70 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb NRFI/YRFI	XGBoostModel	+19.5% 1,819 bets Kelly: +19.5% vs. Universe: +3.0%	62.7% +10.3pp vs. b/e	+22.2% ↑ 2.7pp vs all-time last 2f · 60b	—	1,819 70 folds	Deep Dive
SE Seriea Result	XGBoostModel	+18.5% 1,806 bets Kelly: +18.5% vs. Universe: -10.9%	30.2% -22.2pp vs. b/e	-26.4% ↓ 44.9pp vs all-time last 3f · 45b	—	1,806 254 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+18.0% 886 bets Kelly: +18.0% vs. Universe: +0.9%	60.5% +8.1pp vs. b/e	+19.5% ↑ 1.5pp vs all-time last 2f · 61b	—	886 27 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+17.7% 2,762 bets Kelly: +17.7% vs. Universe: +3.6%	60.1% +7.7pp vs. b/e	+13.3% ↓ 4.4pp vs all-time last 2f · 125b	—	2,762 69 folds	Deep Dive
NF Nfl Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+17.5% 937 bets Kelly: +17.5% vs. Universe: +11.1%	44.1% -8.3pp vs. b/e	+36.3% ↑ 18.7pp vs all-time last 3f · 32b	—	937 107 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb 1st Inning Result	XGBoostModel	+16.7% 521 bets Kelly: +16.7% vs. Universe: -11.6%	54.1% +1.7pp vs. b/e	-5.1% ↓ 21.8pp vs all-time last 2f · 32b	—	521 143 folds	Deep Dive
CH Champions league Over/Under	LightGBMModel	+13.9% 1,216 bets Kelly: +13.9% vs. Universe: +9.4%	59.3% +6.9pp vs. b/e	—	—	1,216 113 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Moneyline	XGBoostModel	-4.6% 1,296 bets Kelly: -4.6% ⚠ vs. Universe: -5.6%	28.3% -24.1pp vs. b/e	+6.1% ↑ 10.8pp vs all-time last 3f · 203b	—	1,296 24 folds	Deep Dive
WO World cup Result	CatBoostModel	-25.2% 59 bets Kelly: -25.2% ⚠ vs. Universe: -21.0%	22% -30.4pp vs. b/e	-15.8% ↑ 9.4pp vs all-time last 3f · 54b	—	59 4 folds	Deep Dive
GO Golf pga made_cut	XGBoostModel	—	—	—	—	0 135 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 70 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 70 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 49 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 49 folds	Deep Dive
LA Laliga Over/Under	XGBoostModel	—	—	—	—	0 123 folds	Deep Dive
SE Seriea Over/Under	XGBoostModel	—	—	—	—	0 145 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 137 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 76 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 76 folds	Deep Dive
LI Ligue1 Over/Under	XGBoostModel	—	—	—	—	0 158 folds	Deep Dive
PR Primeiraliga Over/Under	XGBoostModel	—	—	—	—	0 116 folds	Deep Dive