Evidence Ledger

Performance

Walk-forward backtesting across 8 sports — historical simulation averages, not live P&L.

Universe · flat 1u on every EV+ game

EV, edge & policy filters

Recommendation · flat 1u or Kelly stakes

Predictions Healthy 4 minutes ago

Metrics Healthy 4 minutes ago

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

Bankroll Sim

AS OF May 10 · 4:43 PM EDT

Recommended Bets

31,322

passed EV + policy filters

Bet Hit Rate

61.1%

breakeven 52.4% +8.7pp

Recommendation ROI flat 1u

+42.5%

+9,844.9u net

31,322 bets · passed EV + policy filters

Universe ROI baseline

+14.8%

125,496 candidates · before any filtering

Moneyline ROI

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Spread ROI

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Over/Under ROI

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Equity Curve (All Sports)

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Track cumulative bankroll growth over time.

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What these numbers mean: Flat ROI = return per unit if you bet 1u on every recommended pick. Hit Rate = % of those picks that won (breakeven is 52.4% at -110). Recent Trend = average over the last 3 walk-forward folds only. Final Holdout = a set held back from all training — the cleanest out-of-sample test. All figures averaged across folds from Mar 2017 to May 2026.

All Sports — Backtest Summary

Historical simulation averages — not live tracked results.

Sport / Market	Best Model	Flat ROI	Hit Rate	Recent Trend	Final Holdout	Sample	Details
UF Ufc fighter_2_win	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 878 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +86.1%	73.2% +20.8pp vs. b/e	—	—	878 152 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc KO/TKO	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 346 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +218.8%	80.3% +27.9pp vs. b/e	+344.3% low sample last 3f · 10b	—	346 153 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 1,283 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +105.2%	63.6% +11.2pp vs. b/e	+112.9% ↑ 12.9pp vs all-time last 3f · 136b	—	1,283 28 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+94.8% 423 bets Kelly: +94.8% vs. Universe: +68.1%	67.8% +15.4pp vs. b/e	—	—	423 153 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+83.5% 1,738 bets Kelly: +83.5% vs. Universe: +76.9%	51.6% -0.8pp vs. b/e	+70.0% low sample last 2f · 10b	—	1,738 154 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Spread	XGBoostModel	+63.1% 1,091 bets Kelly: +63.1% vs. Universe: +52.9%	60.7% +8.3pp vs. b/e	+27.4% ↓ 35.6pp vs all-time last 3f · 76b	—	1,091 119 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+60.8% 2,138 bets vs. Universe: +44.6%	58.8% +6.4pp vs. b/e	+105.0% low sample last 3f · 28b	—	2,138 154 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Spread	LightGBMModel	+60.7% 8,252 bets vs. Universe: +38.3%	64.7% +12.3pp vs. b/e	+75.0% ↑ 14.3pp vs all-time last 2f · 57b	—	8,252 140 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Over/Under	CatBoostModel	+49.3% 1,809 bets Kelly: +49.3% vs. Universe: +22.0%	67.1% +14.7pp vs. b/e	+32.8% ↓ 16.5pp vs all-time last 3f · 102b	—	1,809 119 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+47.9% 652 bets Kelly: +47.9% vs. Universe: +29.3%	50.3% -2.1pp vs. b/e	+55.5% low sample last 3f · 21b	—	652 88 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb NRFI/YRFI	CatBoostModel	+39.0% 699 bets Kelly: +39.0% vs. Universe: +2.2%	65.2% +12.8pp vs. b/e	+32.9% ↓ 6.1pp vs all-time last 3f · 40b	—	699 142 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+38.8% 555 bets Kelly: +38.8% vs. Universe: +9.2%	68.1% +15.7pp vs. b/e	+51.4% low sample last 2f · 7b	—	555 140 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+35.7% 5,274 bets Kelly: +35.7% vs. Universe: +16.6%	55.3% +2.9pp vs. b/e	+20.4% ↓ 15.3pp vs all-time last 3f · 68b	—	5,274 142 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Spread	XGBoostModel	+30.6% 1,883 bets vs. Universe: +6.5%	68.2% +15.8pp vs. b/e	+22.1% ↓ 8.5pp vs all-time last 1f · 33b	—	1,883 154 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Spread	CatBoostModel	+28.7% 429 bets Kelly: +28.7% vs. Universe: +4.4%	68.3% +15.9pp vs. b/e	+87.0% low sample last 1f · 1b	—	429 76 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc Distance	LightGBMModel	+27.5% 252 bets Kelly: +27.5% vs. Universe: +20.0%	54% +1.6pp vs. b/e	+65.0% low sample last 3f · 11b	—	252 153 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+25.5% 2,746 bets vs. Universe: +8.9%	66.2% +13.8pp vs. b/e	—	—	2,746 154 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+23.6% 347 bets Kelly: +23.6% vs. Universe: +4.7%	62.8% +10.4pp vs. b/e	+14.0% ↓ 9.6pp vs all-time last 2f · 37b	—	347 76 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Spread	LightGBMModel	+20.3% 1,213 bets Kelly: +20.3% vs. Universe: +2.9%	61.7% +9.3pp vs. b/e	+14.5% ↓ 5.8pp vs all-time last 2f · 85b	—	1,213 28 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Over/Under	LightGBMModel	+12.9% 1,156 bets Kelly: +12.9% vs. Universe: +2.6%	58.5% +6.1pp vs. b/e	+15.4% ↑ 2.6pp vs all-time last 2f · 116b	—	1,156 28 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 142 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 142 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 154 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 154 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 88 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 88 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 154 folds	Deep Dive