Performance Analytics

Walk-forward backtested model metrics across all 10 sports. All stats reflect out-of-sample validation.

Universe · flat 1u on every EV+ game

EV, edge & policy filters

Recommendation · flat 1u or Kelly stakes

Predictions Healthy 1 hour ago

Metrics Healthy 1 hour ago

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

Bankroll Sim

Recommended Bets

43,877

passed EV + policy filters

Win Rate

56.7%

weighted avg across all sport/market combinations

Recommendation ROI flat 1u

+30.9%

+8,756.7u net

43,877 bets · passed EV + policy filters

Universe ROI baseline

+10.8%

134,383 candidates · before any filtering

Moneyline ROI

Tipper+

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Spread (ATS) ROI

Tipper+

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Over/Under ROI

Tipper+

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Equity Curve (All Sports)

Tipper+

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All Sports — Backtest Summary

Sport	Best Model	Accuracy	AUC	ROI (flat 1u)	Bets	Details
UF Ufc fighter_1_win	LightGBMModel	61.9%	0.637	+100.0% 321 bets Kelly: +168.6% ⚠ vs. Universe: +61.8%	152 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball home_win	LightGBMModel	68.2%	0.533	+100.0% 2,639 bets Kelly: +106.7% vs. Universe: +35.1%	37 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba home_win	LightGBMModel	58.5%	0.580	+73.0% 667 bets Kelly: +73.0% vs. Universe: +7.6%	88 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl home_win	CatBoostModel	55.7%	0.569	+63.1% 3,080 bets Kelly: +63.1% vs. Universe: +45.2%	154 folds	Deep Dive
SE Seriea result	LightGBMModel	42.4%	0.569	+55.6% 1,358 bets Kelly: +55.6% vs. Universe: -6.6%	170 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb home_win	LightGBMModel	54.4%	0.556	+55.5% 2,043 bets Kelly: +55.5% vs. Universe: +26.1%	139 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl home_cover	CatBoostModel	54.1%	0.561	+43.0% 4,146 bets Kelly: +43.0% vs. Universe: +34.6%	121 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba home_win	CatBoostModel	57.2%	0.571	+42.8% 3,182 bets Kelly: +42.8% vs. Universe: +35.6%	149 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb home_cover	CatBoostModel	53.1%	0.537	+27.0% 3,185 bets Kelly: +27.0% vs. Universe: +11.7%	138 folds	Deep Dive
PR Primeiraliga result	CatBoostModel	45.6%	0.599	+25.9% 483 bets Kelly: +25.9% vs. Universe: -2.4%	133 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba home_cover	LightGBMModel	58.0%	0.547	+22.9% 862 bets Kelly: +22.9% vs. Universe: +10.0%	85 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba total_over	CatBoostModel	54.9%	0.570	+19.1% 3,078 bets vs. Universe: +4.5%	149 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball total_over	LightGBMModel	55.5%	0.526	+17.8% 1,866 bets Kelly: +17.8% vs. Universe: +3.0%	37 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba home_cover	CatBoostModel	55.4%	0.572	+17.8% 3,391 bets Kelly: +17.8% vs. Universe: +4.8%	149 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball home_cover	LightGBMModel	54.9%	0.533	+17.8% 2,107 bets Kelly: +17.8% vs. Universe: +4.7%	37 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba total_over	LightGBMModel	54.7%	0.533	+16.5% 958 bets Kelly: +16.5% vs. Universe: +4.5%	85 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb total_over	CatBoostModel	54.6%	0.545	+15.3% 5,341 bets Kelly: +15.3% vs. Universe: +4.4%	138 folds	Deep Dive
SE Seriea total_over	LightGBMModel	58.8%	0.560	+11.3% 2,297 bets vs. Universe: +10.5%	153 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl total_over	CatBoostModel	51.2%	0.539	+10.6% 2,873 bets Kelly: +10.6% vs. Universe: +0.6%	121 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb first3_result	LightGBMModel	41.6%	0.535	—	139 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb first5_result	LightGBMModel	45.6%	0.531	—	139 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb nrfi_yrfi	LightGBMModel	52.1%	0.535	—	139 folds	Deep Dive
PR Primeiraliga total_over	XGBoostModel	62.6%	0.550	—	116 folds	Deep Dive