All Sports Performance

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

NFL Football

football • Performance Deep Dive

Trained 2d ago Predicted 1mo ago

All-Time Average (107 folds)

Flat ROI

+17.6%

Hit Rate

44.1%

-8.3pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Nov 30–Jan 10, 2026 ) ↑ Improving

Flat ROI

+36.3%

+18.7pp vs avg

Hit Rate

46.9%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

60.1%

Avg across 107 folds

AUC-ROC

0.594

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6567

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2331

Probability calibration

107 validation folds

Oct 15, 2017 – Jan 10, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Jan 11, 2026 – Feb 8, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.350

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

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Model: LightGBMModel

Calibration: platt

All-Time Average (106 folds)

Flat ROI

+31.8%

Hit Rate

68%

+15.6pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 2 folds · Nov 30–Jan 10, 2026 ) ↓ Declining

Flat ROI

-2.5%

-34.2pp vs avg

Hit Rate

50.0%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

60.9%

Avg across 106 folds

AUC-ROC

0.588

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6553

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2323

Probability calibration

106 validation folds

Oct 15, 2017 – Jan 10, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Jan 11, 2026 – Feb 8, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.661

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter

Model: LightGBMModel

Calibration: platt

All-Time Average (107 folds)

Flat ROI

+45.6%

Hit Rate

75.7%

+23.3pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Nov 30–Jan 10, 2026 ) ↑ Improving

Flat ROI

+66.3%

+20.7pp vs avg

Hit Rate

86.7%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

59.6%

Avg across 107 folds

AUC-ROC

0.602

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6585

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2337

Probability calibration

107 validation folds

Oct 15, 2017 – Jan 10, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Jan 11, 2026 – Feb 8, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.375

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter

Model: LightGBMModel

Calibration: platt