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PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
UF

UFC / MMA

combat • Performance Deep Dive

Trained Never Predicted Never
All-Time Average (153 folds)
Flat ROI
+84.7%
Hit Rate
67.8%
+15.4pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 0 folds · Jan 24–Mar 14, 2026 )
Flat ROI
Hit Rate
Out-of-sample Accuracy
63.3%

Avg across 153 folds

AUC-ROC
0.686

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6065

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2138

Probability calibration

153 validation folds
Mar 4, 2017 – Mar 14, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport ufc to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: XGBoostModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (153 folds)
Flat ROI
+23.1%
Hit Rate
54%
+1.6pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Jan 24–Mar 14, 2026 ) ↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+65.0%
+41.9pp vs avg
Hit Rate
72.7%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
61.3%

Avg across 153 folds

AUC-ROC
0.623

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6447

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2285

Probability calibration

153 validation folds
Mar 4, 2017 – Mar 14, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport ufc to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+
Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter
Model: LightGBMModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (153 folds)
Flat ROI
+100.0%
Hit Rate
80.3%
+27.9pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Jan 24–Mar 14, 2026 ) ↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+344.3%
+244.3pp vs avg
Hit Rate
90.0%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
72.5%

Avg across 153 folds

AUC-ROC
0.677

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.5333

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.1823

Probability calibration

153 validation folds
Mar 4, 2017 – Mar 14, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport ufc to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+
Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter
Model: LightGBMModel
Calibration: platt

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.

All-Time Average (152 folds)
Flat ROI
+100.0%
Hit Rate
73.2%
+20.8pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 0 folds · Dec 13–Feb 21, 2026 )
Flat ROI
Hit Rate
Out-of-sample Accuracy
64.3%

Avg across 152 folds

AUC-ROC
0.657

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6320

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2211

Probability calibration

152 validation folds
Mar 4, 2017 – Feb 21, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport ufc to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+
Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter
Model: LightGBMModel
Calibration: platt