All Sports Performance

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

UFC / MMA

combat • Performance Deep Dive

Trained 3d ago Predicted 1h ago

All-Time Average (150 folds)

Flat ROI

+52.0%

Hit Rate

59.6%

+7.2pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 0 folds · Mar 7–May 2, 2026 )

Flat ROI

—

Hit Rate

—

Out-of-sample Accuracy

57.7%

Avg across 150 folds

AUC-ROC

0.643

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6750

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2410

Probability calibration

150 validation folds

Mar 4, 2017 – May 2, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: May 13, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.419

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI

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Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

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Universe Win Rate

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Model: XGBoostModel

Calibration: platt

All-Time Average (155 folds)

Flat ROI

+18.1%

Hit Rate

52.1%

-0.3pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Mar 7–May 2, 2026 ) ↓ Declining

Flat ROI

+13.1%

-4.9pp vs avg

Hit Rate

44.4%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

59.3%

Avg across 155 folds

AUC-ROC

0.668

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6702

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2390

Probability calibration

155 validation folds

Mar 4, 2017 – May 2, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: May 13, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.593

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

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Model: XGBoostModel

Calibration: platt

All-Time Average (155 folds)

Flat ROI

+100.0%

Hit Rate

73.2%

+20.8pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Mar 7–May 2, 2026 ) ↑ Improving

Flat ROI

+187.7%

+87.7pp vs avg

Hit Rate

66.7%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

70.3%

Avg across 155 folds

AUC-ROC

0.635

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.5907

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2016

Probability calibration

155 validation folds

Mar 4, 2017 – May 2, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: May 6, 2026 – Jun 20, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.696

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

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Universe Win Rate

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Supporter access required

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Model: LightGBMModel

Calibration: platt

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.

All-Time Average (152 folds)

Flat ROI

+100.0%

Hit Rate

73.8%

+21.4pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 0 folds · Dec 13–Feb 21, 2026 )

Flat ROI

—

Hit Rate

—

Out-of-sample Accuracy

64.3%

Avg across 152 folds

AUC-ROC

0.657

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6320

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2211

Probability calibration

152 validation folds

Mar 4, 2017 – Feb 21, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport ufc to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter

Model: LightGBMModel

Calibration: platt

All-Time Average (152 folds)

Flat ROI

+100.0%

Hit Rate

73.8%

+21.4pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 0 folds · Dec 13–Feb 21, 2026 )

Flat ROI

—

Hit Rate

—

Out-of-sample Accuracy

64.3%

Avg across 152 folds

AUC-ROC

0.657

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6320

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2211

Probability calibration

152 validation folds

Mar 4, 2017 – Feb 21, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport ufc to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter

Model: LightGBMModel

Calibration: platt