The Daily Files

Predictions

Evidence-based picks across 5 sports — walk-forward backtested, no hindsight.

Predictions Healthy 6 minutes ago

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PREDICTIONS HEADER

Mock Placement 970x250

Date	Record	Units	ROI	Pending
May 16, 2026 9 bets · 1 sport	Unsettled	—	—	9 / 9
May 13, 2026 7 bets · 2 sports	Unsettled	—	—	7 / 7
May 12, 2026 18 bets · 3 sports	Unsettled	—	—	18 / 18
May 11, 2026 7 bets · 2 sports	4W-3L	+0.78u	+25.4%	Complete
May 10, 2026 18 bets · 3 sports	7W-11L	-2.04u	-26.3%	Complete
May 9, 2026 30 bets · 3 sports	10W-18L-2P	-2.17u	-19.9%	Complete
May 8, 2026 7 bets · 2 sports	1W-6L	-1.91u	-75.2%	Complete

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Evidence Locked

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Tips

Display filters only — they narrow your view but don't affect how the engine evaluates or sizes bets. The Recommended flag reflects the pipeline's EV & edge thresholds.

How to Read the Cards

What the badge means

Every card has a badge in the top-right corner. Best Bet and Bet are Sherlock's real plays — they go into the results tracker. Value and Filed are shown for reference but are not official picks.

⚡ Best Bet The model's top pick — strongest confidence and best expected value of the slate. Tracked in results.

Bet A solid pick — the model sees better value here than the sportsbook is offering. Tracked in results.

Value A slight lean — the model sees a small positive angle but not enough confidence to officially recommend it. Not tracked.

Filed The model doesn't see value here. Shown for reference only — not a recommended play.

The numbers on each card

Odds — The sportsbook's price for this bet. An asterisk * means live odds weren't available — a standard −110 was used as a placeholder, so the expected value may be slightly off.

Edge — How much better the model thinks the true odds are vs. what the sportsbook is offering. Positive = the model sees value the market isn't pricing in.

EV/u — Expected profit per $1 wagered over time. +0.05 means the model expects to earn 5 cents per dollar bet in the long run.

Model% — The model's estimated chance of winning this bet, adjusted to be as accurate as possible based on past results.

Stake — Suggested bet size in units. Scales up with confidence — stronger picks get a larger recommended stake.

Odds Tier — How big a favourite or underdog this team is: Heavy Fav / Favorite / Pick'em / Underdog / Heavy Dog.

Recent form dots (newest on the left)

WL Win / Loss (moneyline)

YN Covered the spread / didn't cover

OU Total went Over / Under

The percentage next to each team name = how often they've hit this market in their last 10 games. Green ≥ 60%, Yellow ≥ 40%, Red < 40%.

Arrow ↑ / → / ↓ — whether the team's recent trend is getting better, staying flat, or getting worse.

A bold label like W4 means the team is on a 4-game winning streak in this market.

Injury warnings

⚠ 2 At least one player is confirmed OUT. The number shows how many players are injured.

● 1 A player is questionable or a game-time decision — not confirmed out yet.

The pts out number = estimated scoring impact of missing players. Higher = bigger deal for the game total.

Tap Injury Evidence on the card to see each injured player, their status (OUT / Questionable / GTD), and individual impact.

A ⚡ High impact flag means injuries are significant enough to affect your spread or total evaluation.

Starting lineups

Shows when starter info is available. A ✓ confirmed badge means the lineup is locked in and auto-expands.

Player status inside the lineup: OUT = not playing, Q = questionable, GTD = game-time decision.

MLB shows batting order number. NHL shows line number (L1, L2…). Other sports show position (PG, QB, etc.).

A red number on the lineup header = how many starters in this lineup are listed as injured.

Stats & Accuracy Indicators

Stats panel — Season record, points scored per game (green = higher scorer), points allowed per game (green = better defense), and recent spread and total hit rates.

Great / Good / Fair / Poor cal. — How accurately the model's predicted win chances matched real outcomes historically. Great = very reliable. Missing = not enough past data yet.

Minor gap / Partial data / Low data — Some information (injuries, lineups, recent head-to-head results, etc.) was missing when this pick was made. Lower confidence picks may carry one of these flags.

Weather shown on totals (Over/Under) only. Blue = cold (<45°F), orange = hot (>80°F). Rain and wind icons flag conditions that tend to keep scores lower.

How the model works →

🔥 10 TOP PICKS TODAY — The model's strongest recommendations right now

19 predictions found Sorted by Time ↑

MLB ML Underdog

⚡ Best Bet Today 6:40 PM

Cincinnati Reds

20% ↑

W W L L L

Washington Nationals

L L W W W

↓ 50%

77°F · Clear sky · 8 mph

3–6 (-3)

(-0.2) 5–5

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.23x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Greene OUT 4.1

Burns GTD 2.4

Suarez OUT 2.2

Williamson OUT 0.8

Pagan OUT 0.5

7 inj · 8.4pts out

Stuart OUT 5.2

Gray OUT 2.4

Sykora GTD 2.4

Susana GTD 2.4

Williams OUT 1.8

10 inj · 11.5pts out

Cincinnati Reds

Washington Nationals

2-8

Record

5-5

3.1

PPG

4.7

6.1

Opp PPG

4.9

50%

ATS L10

60%

50%

O/U L10

50%

MLB O/U Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 6:45 PM

Boston Red Sox

38% →

U U O O O

Philadelphia Phillies

U O O O O

→ 70%

61°F · Clear sky · 8 mph

3–4 (-0.3)

(+1.3) 5–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.98x

Injury Evidence ⚡ High impact

Sandoval OUT 3

Houck OUT 2.2

Crochet OUT 2.1

Oviedo OUT 1.3

Rodgers OUT 0.7

11 inj · 10.3pts out

Bechtold GTD 2.4

Rojas OUT 0.4

Pop OUT 0.1

Lazar OUT 0.1

Anthony GTD —

8 inj · 0.6pts out

Boston Red Sox

Philadelphia Phillies

5-5

Record

7-3

3.4

PPG

5.2

3.7

Opp PPG

3.9

37.5%

ATS L10

50%

37.5%

O/U L10

70%

MLB O/U Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 7:15 PM

Atlanta Braves

56% →

U O U U O

Chicago Cubs

U U U O O

U3 ↓ 30%

72°F · Partly cloudy · 9 mph

5–4 (+1.8)

(+1.2) 5–3

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.98x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Burkhalter GTD 2.4

Jr. OUT 1.8

Schwellenbach OUT 1.6

Wentz OUT 0.6

Murphy OUT 0.4

11 inj · 5.7pts out

Boyd OUT 7.9

Steele OUT 4

Birdsell GTD 2.4

Horton OUT 1.3

Wicks OUT 0.5

12 inj · 15.1pts out

Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs

6-4

Record

8-2

5.3

PPG

4.6

3.5

Opp PPG

3.4

77.8%

ATS L10

40%

55.6%

O/U L10

30%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 7:40 PM

Minnesota Twins

50% ↑

W W L L L

Miami Marlins

W W L W L

↑ 40%

66°F · Clear sky · 18 mph

5–6 (-1.1)

(-0.4) 4–5

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.93x

Injury Evidence

Lopez OUT 3.4

Lewis GTD 2.4

Canterino GTD 2.4

Jenkins GTD 2.4

Bradley OUT 2.3

11 inj · 6.7pts out

Fairbanks OUT 0.7

Mazur OUT 0.4

Henriquez OUT 0.3

Conine OUT 0.3

Tinoco OUT 0.1

5 inj · 1.8pts out

Minnesota Twins

Miami Marlins

5-5

Record

4-6

4.7

PPG

4.1

5.8

Opp PPG

4.5

44.4%

ATS L10

40%

66.7%

O/U L10

50%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 7:40 PM

Milwaukee Brewers

70% ↑ W4

W W W W L

San Diego Padres

W W L L W

↑ 50%

68°F · Overcast · 13 mph

5–3 (+2.4)

(-0.5) 3–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.09x

Injury Evidence ⚡ High impact

Woodruff OUT 2.7

Priester OUT 2.2

Koenig OUT 0.4

Zerpa OUT 0.3

Lockridge OUT 0.1

9 inj · 5.8pts out

Pivetta OUT 4.3

Darvish OUT 4.2

Hunt GTD 2.4

Musgrove OUT 2.4

Marquez OUT 1.7

8 inj · 13.5pts out

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres

7-3

Record

5-5

5.0

PPG

3.1

2.6

Opp PPG

3.6

70%

ATS L10

30%

20%

O/U L10

20%

NBA O/U Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs

50% ↑ O3

O O O U U

Minnesota Timberwolves

O O O U U

O3 ↑ 56%

114–105 (+9)

(-1.1) 109–110

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.93x

Injury Evidence

Garcia OUT 0.1

1 inj · 0.1pts out

DiVincenzo OUT 4.3

1 inj · 4.3pts out

San Antonio Spurs

Minnesota Timberwolves

6-4

Record

6-4

113.9

PPG

109.3

104.9

Opp PPG

110.4

60%

ATS L10

55.6%

50%

O/U L10

55.6%

45.8 / 24.6

Reb / Ast

47.5 / 23.7

NBA Spread Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs

60% →

N Y Y N Y

Minnesota Timberwolves

Y N N Y Y

→ 56%

114–105 (+9)

(-1.1) 109–110

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.95x

Injury Evidence

Garcia OUT 0.1

1 inj · 0.1pts out

DiVincenzo OUT 4.3

1 inj · 4.3pts out

San Antonio Spurs

Minnesota Timberwolves

6-4

Record

6-4

113.9

PPG

109.3

104.9

Opp PPG

110.4

60%

ATS L10

55.6%

50%

O/U L10

55.6%

45.8 / 24.6

Reb / Ast

47.5 / 23.7

MLB O/U Favorite

⚡ Best Bet Today 8:05 PM

Texas Rangers

30% ↓ U4

U U U U O

Arizona Diamondbacks

U U U U U

U8 ↓ 11%

84°F · Clear sky · 6 mph

3–4 (-1.2)

(+0.3) 3–3

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.89x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Eovaldi GTD 6.5

Montgomery OUT 5

Walcott GTD 2.4

Smith OUT 0.9

Langford OUT 0.8

12 inj · 8.1pts out

Burnes OUT 4.1

Amendt GTD 2.4

Henry OUT 0.9

Smith OUT 0.7

Law OUT 0.3

13 inj · 6.5pts out

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

4-6

Record

4-6

2.9

PPG

2.9

4.1

Opp PPG

2.6

40%

ATS L10

44.4%

30%

O/U L10

11.1%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 8:05 PM

Texas Rangers

40% →

L W W L L

Arizona Diamondbacks

W W W L L

W3 ↑ 40%

84°F · Clear sky · 6 mph

3–4 (-1.2)

(+0.3) 3–3

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.09x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Eovaldi GTD 6.5

Montgomery OUT 5

Walcott GTD 2.4

Smith OUT 0.9

Langford OUT 0.8

12 inj · 8.1pts out

Burnes OUT 4.1

Amendt GTD 2.4

Henry OUT 0.9

Smith OUT 0.7

Law OUT 0.3

13 inj · 6.5pts out

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

4-6

Record

4-6

2.9

PPG

2.9

4.1

Opp PPG

2.6

40%

ATS L10

44.4%

30%

O/U L10

11.1%

WNBA O/U Favorite

⚡ Best Bet Today 10:00 PM

Phoenix Mercury

50%

O U

Minnesota Lynx

100%

89–81 (+8.5)

(-1) 90–91

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.87x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Whitcomb OUT 3.4

Makani OUT 2.7

2 inj · 6.1pts out

Collier OUT 7.4

Juhasz OUT —

2 inj · 7.4pts out

Phoenix Mercury

Minnesota Lynx

4-6

Record

5-5

84.4

PPG

81.0

85.0

Opp PPG

77.3

40%

ATS L10

40%

80%

O/U L10

50%

WNBA O/U Favorite

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Toronto Tempo

Seattle Storm

O O

100%

65–68 (-3)

(-2) 85–87

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.89x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

No reports

Magbegor OUT 5.7

Fam OUT 5.2

Mair GTD —

Samuelson OUT —

4 inj · 10.9pts out

Toronto Tempo

Seattle Storm

0-1

Record

5-5

65.0

PPG

81.2

68.0

Opp PPG

82.8

ATS L10

40%

O/U L10

60%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 7:40 PM

Chicago White Sox

60% →

W W L L L

Kansas City Royals

L W W L L

↓ 70%

50°F · Overcast · 5 mph

5–3 (+1.1)

(+0.8) 4–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence

Adams GTD 2.4

Vasil OUT 0.3

Teel OUT 0.2

Baldwin OUT 0.2

Thorpe OUT 0.2

11 inj · 1pts out

Ragans OUT 3.8

Simonelli GTD 2.4

Vaz GTD 2.4

Guerrero GTD 2.4

Marsh OUT 1.5

8 inj · 6pts out

Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Royals

6-4

Record

7-3

4.5

PPG

4.3

3.4

Opp PPG

3.5

70%

ATS L10

60%

30%

O/U L10

40%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 7:40 PM

Milwaukee Brewers

70% ↑ W4

W W W W L

San Diego Padres

W W L L W

↑ 50%

55°F · Overcast · 4 mph

5–3 (+2.4)

(-0.5) 3–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence ⚡ High impact

Woodruff OUT 2.7

Priester OUT 2.2

Koenig OUT 0.4

Zerpa OUT 0.3

Lockridge OUT 0.1

9 inj · 5.8pts out

Pivetta OUT 4.3

Darvish OUT 4.2

Hunt GTD 2.4

Musgrove OUT 2.4

Marquez OUT 1.7

8 inj · 13.5pts out

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres

7-3

Record

5-5

5.0

PPG

3.1

2.6

Opp PPG

3.6

70%

ATS L10

30%

20%

O/U L10

20%

UFC TOTAL_ROUNDS_OVER Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 5:00 PM

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

13-4-1

Record

24-6-1

20%

Finish%

20%

KO/TKO

20%

Sub%

UFC ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 5:00 PM

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

13-4-1

Record

24-6-1

20%

Finish%

20%

KO/TKO

20%

Sub%

UFC ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 5:00 PM

Daniel Barez

Luis Gurule

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Daniel Barez

Luis Gurule

17-7-0

Record

10-3-0

Finish%

KO/TKO

Sub%

UFC TOTAL_ROUNDS_OVER Favorite

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 8:00 PM

Modestas Bukauskas

Rodolfo Bellato

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.89x

Modestas Bukauskas

Rodolfo Bellato

19-7-0

Record

13-3-1

60%

Finish%

40%

KO/TKO

40%

20%

Sub%

UFC ML Underdog

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 8:00 PM

Dooho Choi

Daniel Santos

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.20x

Dooho Choi

Daniel Santos

16-4-1

Record

14-2-0

40%

Finish%

40%

KO/TKO

40%

Sub%

UFC ML Underdog

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 8:00 PM

Timmy Cuamba

Bernardo Sopaj

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.24x

Timmy Cuamba

Bernardo Sopaj

10-3-0

Record

12-3-0

20%

Finish%

20%

KO/TKO

Sub%

Predictions

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