The Daily Files

Predictions

Evidence-based picks across 5 sports — walk-forward backtested, no hindsight.

Predictions Healthy 12 minutes ago

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PREDICTIONS HEADER

Mock Placement 970x250

Date	Record	Units	ROI	Pending
Jul 14, 2026 2 bets · 1 sport	Unsettled	—	—	2 / 2
WNBA Unsettled · 2 pend
Jul 13, 2026 1 bet · 1 sport	1W-0L	+0.37u	+86.0%	Complete
WNBA 1W-0L +0.37u (+86.0%)
Jul 12, 2026 7 bets · 2 sports	6W-1L	+2.96u	+53.9%	Complete
MLB 5W-0L +3.61u (+97.3%) WNBA 1W-1L -0.65u (-36.5%)
Jul 11, 2026 6 bets · 3 sports	4W-2L	+0.82u	+20.7%	Complete
UFC 2W-0L +1.52u (+101.3%) MLB 2W-1L +0.22u (+14.2%) WNBA 0W-1L -0.92u (-100.0%)
Jul 10, 2026 9 bets · 2 sports	3W-6L	-2.35u	-47.7%	Complete
WNBA 0W-1L -0.60u (-100.0%) MLB 3W-5L -1.75u (-40.4%)
Jul 9, 2026 8 bets · 1 sport	3W-5L	-1.11u	-32.2%	Complete
MLB 3W-5L -1.11u (-32.2%)
Jul 8, 2026 6 bets · 2 sports	3W-3L	+0.58u	+21.6%	Complete
WNBA 1W-0L +0.65u (+90.3%) MLB 2W-3L -0.07u (-3.6%)

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Evidence Locked

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Tips

Display filters only — they narrow your view but don't affect how the engine evaluates or sizes bets. The Recommended flag reflects the pipeline's EV & edge thresholds.

How to Read the Cards

What the badge means

Every card has a badge in the top-right corner. Best Bet and Bet are Sherlock's real plays — they go into the results tracker. Value and Filed are shown for reference but are not official picks.

⚡ Best Bet The model's top pick — strongest confidence and best expected value of the slate. Tracked in results.

Bet A solid pick — the model sees better value here than the sportsbook is offering. Tracked in results.

Value A slight lean — the model sees a small positive angle but not enough confidence to officially recommend it. Not tracked.

Filed The model doesn't see value here. Shown for reference only — not a recommended play.

The numbers on each card

Odds — The sportsbook's price for this bet. An asterisk * means live odds weren't available — a standard −110 was used as a placeholder, so the expected value may be slightly off.

Edge — How much better the model thinks the true odds are vs. what the sportsbook is offering. Positive = the model sees value the market isn't pricing in.

EV/u — Expected profit per $1 wagered over time. +0.05 means the model expects to earn 5 cents per dollar bet in the long run.

Model% — The model's estimated chance of winning this bet, adjusted to be as accurate as possible based on past results.

Stake — Suggested bet size in units. Scales up with confidence — stronger picks get a larger recommended stake.

Odds Tier — How big a favourite or underdog this team is: Heavy Fav / Favorite / Pick'em / Underdog / Heavy Dog.

Recent form dots (newest on the left)

WL Win / Loss (moneyline)

YN Covered the spread / didn't cover

OU Total went Over / Under

The percentage next to each team name = how often they've hit this market in their last 10 games. Green ≥ 60%, Yellow ≥ 40%, Red < 40%.

Arrow ↑ / → / ↓ — whether the team's recent trend is getting better, staying flat, or getting worse.

A bold label like W4 means the team is on a 4-game winning streak in this market.

Injury warnings

⚠ 2 At least one player is confirmed OUT. The number shows how many players are injured.

● 1 A player is questionable or a game-time decision — not confirmed out yet.

The pts out number = estimated scoring impact of missing players. Higher = bigger deal for the game total.

Tap Injury Evidence on the card to see each injured player, their status (OUT / Questionable / GTD), and individual impact.

A ⚡ High impact flag means injuries are significant enough to affect your spread or total evaluation.

Starting lineups

Shows when starter info is available. A ✓ confirmed badge means the lineup is locked in and auto-expands.

Player status inside the lineup: OUT = not playing, Q = questionable, GTD = game-time decision.

MLB shows batting order number. NHL shows line number (L1, L2…). Other sports show position (PG, QB, etc.).

A red number on the lineup header = how many starters in this lineup are listed as injured.

Stats & Accuracy Indicators

Stats panel — Season record, points scored per game (green = higher scorer), points allowed per game (green = better defense), and recent spread and total hit rates.

Great / Good / Fair / Poor cal. — How accurately the model's predicted win chances matched real outcomes historically. Great = very reliable. Missing = not enough past data yet.

Minor gap / Partial data / Low data — Some information (injuries, lineups, recent head-to-head results, etc.) was missing when this pick was made. Lower confidence picks may carry one of these flags.

Weather shown on totals (Over/Under) only. Blue = cold (<45°F), orange = hot (>80°F). Rain and wind icons flag conditions that tend to keep scores lower.

How the model works →

🔥 2 PICKS TODAY — Every recommended play across markets right now

13 predictions found Sorted by Time ↑

WNBA Spread Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 11:00 AM EDT

Connecticut Sun

60% →

N Y Y Y Y

Portland Fire

Y Y Y Y N

Y4 ↑ 60%

83–84 (-0.8)

(-9) 90–99

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.93x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Morrow OUT 5.7

Rivers OUT 5.6

Jackson OUT 0.1

3 inj · 11.4pts out

Harrison OUT 0.1

Feagin OUT 0.1

2 inj · 0.2pts out

Connecticut Sun

Portland Fire

3-7

Record

4-6

83.2

PPG

89.5

84.0

Opp PPG

98.5

60%

ATS L10

60%

50%

O/U L10

70%

WNBA Spread Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 7:00 PM EDT

Toronto Tempo

50% ↑

Y N Y N N

Washington Mystics

N N Y N N

↓ 50%

90–96 (-6.3)

(-2.2) 79–82

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.98x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Sykes OUT 6.7

Rice OUT 3.1

Fagbenle OUT 2.6

3 inj · 12.4pts out

No reports

Toronto Tempo

Washington Mystics

3-7

Record

6-4

90.0

PPG

79.3

96.3

Opp PPG

81.5

50%

ATS L10

50%

70%

O/U L10

40%

WNBA Spread Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 12:00 PM EDT

Chicago Sky

60% ↓

Y N Y N N

Seattle Storm

Y Y Y N N

Y3 ↑ 60%

92–92 (-0.3)

(-2.7) 85–88

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence ⚡ High impact

Diggins OUT 3.5

Jackson OUT 1.9

Carrington OUT 0.5

Bibby OUT 0.4

4 inj · 6.3pts out

Magbegor OUT 3.7

Mair OUT —

2 inj · 3.7pts out

Chicago Sky

Seattle Storm

3-7

Record

3-7

91.9

PPG

85.4

92.2

Opp PPG

88.1

60%

ATS L10

60%

80%

O/U L10

60%

WNBA O/U Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 8:00 PM EDT

Indiana Fever

80% → O3

O O O U O

Golden State Valkyries

U U U O U

U3 ↓ 20%

99–93 (+6.8)

(+5) 78–73

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence

Hall OUT —

1 inj

Williams OUT 3.7

Rupert OUT 2.1

Prechtel OUT —

Sowah OUT —

4 inj · 5.8pts out

Indiana Fever

Golden State Valkyries

6-4

Record

8-2

99.3

PPG

78.2

92.5

Opp PPG

73.2

60%

ATS L10

70%

80%

O/U L10

20%

MLS X2 Underdog

⚡ Best Bet Jul 16, 8:30 PM EDT

Chicago Fire FC

60% ↑

W W L L W

Vancouver Whitecaps

L W L L W

→ 60%

2–1 (+0.8)

(+1.3) 2–1

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.80x

Chicago Fire FC

Vancouver Whitecaps

7-3

Record

6-4

2.2

PPG

2.0

1.2

Opp PPG

1.1

66.7%

O/U L10

—

MLS 1X Heavy Fav

⚡ Best Bet Jul 16, 8:30 PM EDT

Chicago Fire FC

60% ↑

W W L L W

Vancouver Whitecaps

L W L L W

→ 60%

2–1 (+0.8)

(+1.3) 2–1

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.57x

Chicago Fire FC

Vancouver Whitecaps

7-3

Record

6-4

2.2

PPG

2.0

1.2

Opp PPG

1.1

66.7%

O/U L10

—

MLS Result Underdog

⚡ Best Bet Jul 16, 8:30 PM EDT

Chicago Fire FC

60% ↑

W W L L W

Vancouver Whitecaps

L W L L W

→ 60%

2–1 (+0.8)

(+1.3) 2–1

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.25x

Chicago Fire FC

Vancouver Whitecaps

7-3

Record

6-4

2.2

PPG

2.0

1.2

Opp PPG

1.1

66.7%

O/U L10

—

MLS X2 Underdog

⚡ Best Bet Jul 16, 10:30 PM EDT

Seattle Sounders FC

60% ↓

L W L L W

Portland Timbers

L L W L W

→ 30%

1–1 (+0.6)

(+0) 2–2

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.51x

Seattle Sounders FC

Portland Timbers

5-5

Record

3-7

1.3

PPG

1.6

0.9

Opp PPG

1.7

O/U L10

UFC ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Jul 18, 5:00 PM EDT

Austin Bashi

Jose Miguel Delgado

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.95x

Austin Bashi

Jose Miguel Delgado

14-1-0

Record

11-2-0

66.7%

Finish%

60%

KO/TKO

60%

66.7%

Sub%

NFL Spread Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Sep 10, 8:35 PM EDT

Los Angeles Rams

50% ↓ N3

N N N Y N

San Francisco 49ers

N Y N N Y

→ 60%

33–25 (+7.4)

(+2.9) 27–24

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.00x

Injury Evidence

Thomas Q 3.6

Turner Q 1.9

Dolac Q 0.5

Witherspoon Q 0.2

4 inj

Tomlinson Q 3.6

Taylor Q 3.6

Jr. Q 3.6

Robinson Q 3.6

Rourke Q 3.6

14 inj

Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco 49ers

6-4

Record

7-3

32.7

PPG

27.2

25.3

Opp PPG

24.3

50%

ATS L10

60%

80%

O/U L10

60%

NFL ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

Houston Texans

90% ↓

L W W W W

Buffalo Bills

L W W L W

→ 70%

25–18 (+6.7)

(+6.5) 29–23

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.93x

Injury Evidence

Mixon Q 3.6

Ward Q 3.6

Jordan Q 3.6

Hinish Q 3.6

Hamilton Q 3.6

15 inj

Owens Q 3.6

Lundt Q 3.6

Jackson Q 3.6

Carter Q 3.6

Bass Q 3.6

15 inj

Houston Texans

Buffalo Bills

9-1

Record

7-3

24.6

PPG

29.0

17.9

Opp PPG

22.5

60%

ATS L10

50%

40%

O/U L10

60%

NFL Spread Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT

Los Angeles Chargers

50% ↓ N3

N N N Y Y

Arizona Cardinals

N N N N N

N5 ↓ 20%

18–18 (+0)

(-13.2) 20–33

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence

Slater Q 3.6

Rogers Q 3.6

Oladokun Q 3.6

Fuga Q 3.6

Colson Q 3.6

10 inj

V Q 3.6

Senn Q 3.6

Russell Q 3.6

Murphy-Bunting Q 3.6

Jr. Q 3.6

25 inj

Los Angeles Chargers

Arizona Cardinals

6-4

Record

1-9

18.3

PPG

20.2

18.3

Opp PPG

33.4

50%

ATS L10

20%

30%

O/U L10

60%

NFL Spread Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Sep 14, 8:15 PM EDT

Kansas City Chiefs

20% →

N Y N N N

Denver Broncos

Y Y Y N N

Y3 ↑ 50%

18–20 (-2.8)

(+3.1) 22–19

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.00x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major

Mahomes Q 8.2

Taylor Q 3.6

Jr. Q 3.6

Robinson Q 3.6

Morris Q 3.6

21 inj

Nix Q 9.5

Jr. Q 3.6

Sanders Q 3.6

Peart Q 3.6

Henningsen Q 3.6

13 inj

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos

2-8

Record

8-2

17.6

PPG

21.6

20.4

Opp PPG

18.5

20%

ATS L10

50%

10%

O/U L10

50%

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