Liga MX

soccer • Performance Deep Dive

Trained Never Predicted Never

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.

All-Time Average (164 folds)

Flat ROI

+12.7%

Hit Rate

31.7%

-20.7pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Apr 3–May 10, 2026 ) ↑ Improving

Flat ROI

+41.1%

+28.4pp vs avg

Hit Rate

37.1%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

41.8%

Avg across 164 folds

AUC-ROC

0.580

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

1.0617

Lower is better

Brier Score

N/A (multiclass)

Probability calibration

164 validation folds

Sep 26, 2017 – May 10, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport ligamx to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI

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Recommendation Win Rate

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Universe ROI

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Universe Win Rate

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Model: XGBoostModel

Calibration: none (multiclass)