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Mock Placement 728x90
NH

NHL Hockey

hockey • Performance Deep Dive

Trained Never Predicted Never
All-Time Average (154 folds)
Flat ROI
+83.1%
Hit Rate
51.6%
-0.8pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 2 folds · Mar 20–May 7, 2026 ) ↓ Declining
Flat ROI
+70.0%
-13.1pp vs avg
Hit Rate
60.0%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
57.2%

Avg across 154 folds

AUC-ROC
0.567

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6757

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2417

Probability calibration

154 validation folds
Nov 10, 2017 – May 7, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport nhl to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: LightGBMModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (119 folds)
Flat ROI
+59.2%
Hit Rate
60.7%
+8.3pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Mar 17–May 4, 2026 ) ↓ Declining
Flat ROI
+27.4%
-31.8pp vs avg
Hit Rate
48.7%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
54.5%

Avg across 119 folds

AUC-ROC
0.578

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6817

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2444

Probability calibration

119 validation folds
Nov 5, 2019 – May 4, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport nhl to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: XGBoostModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (119 folds)
Flat ROI
+42.2%
Hit Rate
67.1%
+14.7pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Mar 17–May 4, 2026 ) ↓ Declining
Flat ROI
+32.8%
-9.4pp vs avg
Hit Rate
68.6%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
58.1%

Avg across 119 folds

AUC-ROC
0.595

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6591

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2353

Probability calibration

119 validation folds
Nov 5, 2019 – May 4, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport nhl to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: CatBoostModel
Calibration: platt
Avg RMSE
2.572

Root mean squared error

Avg MAE
2.198

Mean absolute error

R² Score
-0.0054

Explained variance

154 validation folds
Nov 10, 2017 – May 7, 2026

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Model: LightGBMRegressorModel
Calibration: platt
Avg RMSE
2.286

Root mean squared error

Avg MAE
1.834

Mean absolute error

R² Score
-0.0048

Explained variance

154 validation folds
Nov 10, 2017 – May 7, 2026

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Model: LightGBMRegressorModel
Calibration: platt