All Sports Performance
AD TEST MODE
PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
ML
MLS
soccer • Performance Deep Dive
Trained 2d ago
Predicted 1w ago
All-Time Average
(102 folds)
Flat ROI
+65.3%
Hit Rate
86.6%
+34.2pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Nov 29–Mar 15, 2026
)
↓ Declining
Flat ROI
+41.4%
-23.9pp vs avg
Hit Rate
74.1%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
89.7%
Avg across 102 folds
AUC-ROC
0.605
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
0.3094
Lower is better
Brier
Score
0.0853
Probability calibration
102 validation folds
Aug 4, 2018
–
Mar 15, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport mls
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
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Recommendation Win Rate
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Universe ROI
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Universe Win Rate
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Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
LightGBMModel
Calibration:
platt
All-Time Average
(172 folds)
Flat ROI
+41.9%
Hit Rate
40.9%
-11.5pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Mar 7–Apr 17, 2026
)
↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+65.7%
+23.8pp vs avg
Hit Rate
42.9%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
41.9%
Avg across 172 folds
AUC-ROC
0.564
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
1.0553
Lower is better
Brier
Score
N/A (multiclass)
Probability calibration
172 validation folds
Apr 29, 2017
–
Apr 17, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport mls
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
LightGBMModel
Calibration:
none (multiclass)