All Sports Performance
AD TEST MODE
PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
SE
Serie A
soccer • Performance Deep Dive
Trained 2w ago
Predicted Never
All-Time Average
(145 folds)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Recent Trend
(last 0 folds
· Apr 5–May 11, 2026
)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Out-of-sample Accuracy
61.1%
Avg across 145 folds
AUC-ROC
0.695
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
0.6467
Lower is better
Brier
Score
0.2288
Probability calibration
145 validation folds
Oct 28, 2018
–
May 11, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport seriea
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
XGBoostModel
Calibration:
platt
All-Time Average
(254 folds)
Flat ROI
+6.2%
Hit Rate
30.2%
-22.2pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Apr 4–May 10, 2026
)
↓ Declining
Flat ROI
-26.4%
-32.6pp vs avg
Hit Rate
20.0%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
42.0%
Avg across 254 folds
AUC-ROC
0.587
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
1.0599
Lower is better
Brier
Score
N/A (multiclass)
Probability calibration
254 validation folds
Mar 18, 2001
–
May 10, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport seriea
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
XGBoostModel
Calibration:
none (multiclass)