All Sports Performance
AD TEST MODE
PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
LA
La Liga
soccer • Performance Deep Dive
Trained Never
Predicted Never
All-Time Average
(123 folds)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Recent Trend
(last 0 folds
· Aug 17–Sep 27, 2024
)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Out-of-sample Accuracy
56.7%
Avg across 123 folds
AUC-ROC
0.514
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
0.8286
Lower is better
Brier
Score
0.2832
Probability calibration
123 validation folds
Aug 25, 2018
–
Sep 27, 2024
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport laliga
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
XGBoostModel
Calibration:
platt
All-Time Average
(173 folds)
Flat ROI
+14.3%
Hit Rate
31.4%
-21pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Apr 3–May 17, 2026
)
↓ Declining
Flat ROI
-24.5%
-38.8pp vs avg
Hit Rate
21.6%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
43.0%
Avg across 173 folds
AUC-ROC
0.582
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
1.0555
Lower is better
Brier
Score
N/A (multiclass)
Probability calibration
173 validation folds
Mar 18, 2001
–
May 17, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport laliga
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
XGBoostModel
Calibration:
none (multiclass)