All Sports Performance
AD TEST MODE
PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
LI
Ligue 1
soccer • Performance Deep Dive
Trained Never
Predicted Never
All-Time Average
(158 folds)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Recent Trend
(last 0 folds
· Jan 16–Feb 20, 2026
)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Out-of-sample Accuracy
52.9%
Avg across 158 folds
AUC-ROC
0.506
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
0.8508
Lower is better
Brier
Score
0.2949
Probability calibration
158 validation folds
Aug 18, 2018
–
Feb 20, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport ligue1
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
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Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
XGBoostModel
Calibration:
platt
All-Time Average
(122 folds)
Flat ROI
+27.6%
Hit Rate
34.3%
-18.1pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Feb 14–Apr 10, 2026
)
↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+53.1%
+25.5pp vs avg
Hit Rate
38.7%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
43.1%
Avg across 122 folds
AUC-ROC
0.600
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
1.0741
Lower is better
Brier
Score
N/A (multiclass)
Probability calibration
122 validation folds
Oct 14, 2017
–
Apr 10, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport ligue1
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
CatBoostModel
Calibration:
none (multiclass)