All Sports Performance
AD TEST MODE
PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
CH
UEFA Champions League
soccer • Performance Deep Dive
Trained Never
Predicted Never
All-Time Average
(113 folds)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
59.3%
+6.9pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 0 folds
· Jan 20–Feb 25, 2026
)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
35.3%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
57.3%
Avg across 113 folds
AUC-ROC
0.571
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
0.7065
Lower is better
Brier
Score
0.2509
Probability calibration
113 validation folds
Sep 19, 2018
–
Feb 25, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport champions-league
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
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Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
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Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
LightGBMModel
Calibration:
platt
All-Time Average
(96 folds)
Flat ROI
+54.3%
Hit Rate
40%
-12.4pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Feb 17–Apr 15, 2026
)
↓ Declining
Flat ROI
-46.1%
-100.3pp vs avg
Hit Rate
15.8%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
40.8%
Avg across 96 folds
AUC-ROC
0.575
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
1.0679
Lower is better
Brier
Score
N/A (multiclass)
Probability calibration
96 validation folds
Feb 13, 2018
–
Apr 15, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport champions-league
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
CatBoostModel
Calibration:
none (multiclass)