All Sports Performance
AD TEST MODE
PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
WO
FIFA World Cup
soccer • Performance Deep Dive
Trained 3w ago
Predicted 3w ago
No backtest data yet
The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.
All-Time Average
(4 folds)
Flat ROI
-17.2%
Hit Rate
22%
-30.4pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Nov 20–Dec 18, 2022
)
↑ Improving
Flat ROI
-15.8%
+1.4pp vs avg
Hit Rate
22.2%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
53.9%
Avg across 4 folds
AUC-ROC
0.670
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
1.0709
Lower is better
Brier
Score
N/A (multiclass)
Probability calibration
4 validation folds
Jul 10, 2018
–
Dec 18, 2022
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport world-cup
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
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Recommendation Win Rate
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Universe ROI
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Universe Win Rate
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Model:
CatBoostModel
Calibration:
none (multiclass)