All Sports Performance
AD TEST MODE
PERFORMANCE HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
PR
Primeira Liga
soccer • Performance Deep Dive
Trained Never
Predicted Never
All-Time Average
(116 folds)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Recent Trend
(last 0 folds
· Jan 11–Feb 15, 2026
)
Flat ROI
—
Hit Rate
—
Out-of-sample Accuracy
62.6%
Avg across 116 folds
AUC-ROC
0.550
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
0.8106
Lower is better
Brier
Score
0.2634
Probability calibration
116 validation folds
Aug 13, 2018
–
Feb 15, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport primeiraliga
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
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Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
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Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
XGBoostModel
Calibration:
platt
All-Time Average
(123 folds)
Flat ROI
+23.3%
Hit Rate
33.4%
-19pp vs b/e
Recent Trend
(last 3 folds
· Feb 23–Apr 19, 2026
)
↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+64.2%
+40.9pp vs avg
Hit Rate
45.2%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
42.2%
Avg across 123 folds
AUC-ROC
0.609
0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect
Log
Loss
1.0665
Lower is better
Brier
Score
N/A (multiclass)
Probability calibration
123 validation folds
Nov 24, 2017
–
Apr 19, 2026
Final Holdout Test
Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.
No holdout data available. Re-run
prediction-system run --sport primeiraliga
to generate holdout metrics.
Fold-by-Fold Metrics
Supporter+ requiredBetting Simulation
Supporter+Recommendation ROI
�
Recommendation Win Rate
�
Universe ROI
�
Universe Win Rate
�
Supporter access required
Unlock Supporter
Model:
CatBoostModel
Calibration:
none (multiclass)