Betting Guide
How It Works
No statistics degree required. This guide explains every number you see on SherlockPicks — what it means, why it matters, and how to use it without blowing your bankroll.
1 The Three Markets — What Are You Actually Betting?
Every prediction on this site falls into one of three bet types. Here's what each one means.
Moneyline
Pick the winner — that's it. No points, no margin. If you bet the Lakers on the moneyline, you win if the Lakers win, full stop.
Used in: NBA · NFL · NHL · MLB · Soccer · UFC
Spread (ATS)
Pick the winner by a margin. The sportsbook handicaps the favourite — they need to win by more than the spread for you to cash.
Used in: NFL · NBA · College Football · College Basketball · MLB (run line)
Total (Over/Under)
Bet on the combined score — not who wins. The book sets a number; you decide whether both teams together go over or under it.
Used in: NBA · NFL · NHL · MLB · College Football · Soccer
Quick sport reference
2 What Goes Into a Prediction
You don't need to know the under-the-hood details — but here's the plain-English picture of what we look at for every game.
Recent Form
How each team has been playing over the last few weeks — wins, losses, scoring trends.
Home & Away Records
Teams perform differently at home vs on the road. We track both separately.
Rest & Schedule
Back-to-backs, short turnarounds, and long road trips all wear teams down. We account for that.
Travel & Distance
Flying cross-country the night before a game is exhausting. We factor in travel distance.
Head-to-Head History
How have these two specific teams fared against each other historically?
Injury Reports
Flagged from official reports. Players listed as Out or Questionable are noted on the prediction card.
3 Injuries & Lineups — The Human Factor
This is the one area where you have an edge over any automated system. Always do a 30-second injury check before placing a bet.
What SherlockPicks shows you
Every prediction card shows an injury flag when players are officially listed as Out or Questionable for that game. You'll see the total count per team (e.g. "2 out, 1 questionable").
The predictions themselves already account for injury information available at the time of the daily run. If a player was already listed as out when we generated picks, that's baked in.
The star player problem — when to be suspicious
Injury news breaks fast. If a star player is announced as out after our daily prediction run, the model hasn't seen it. The sportsbook has already adjusted the line — but our EV calculation hasn't.
Rule of thumb: Any time you see high EV on a team and there's major late injury news, treat the pick as stale. The number on the card is a snapshot — real life moves faster.
30-second pre-bet checklist
- 1 Check the injury flag on the prediction card — how many players are out?
- 2 If the card says 2+ players out, look up who they are. Are any starters?
- 3 Check ESPN or the team's official social for same-day injury updates
- 4 For NBA/NHL: confirm starting lineup or goalie starter if known
- 5 For MLB: verify the starting pitcher — it's the single biggest variable in baseball
- 6 For NFL: check the official 4:30 PM ET injury report on game day
4 What Is EV? (Expected Value)
EV is the single most important number on this site. Here's what it actually means.
The coin flip analogy
Imagine someone offers you a coin flip. Heads you win $1.20, tails you lose $1.00. Fair coin — 50/50 odds. Would you take it?
Your expected profit per flip:
(50% × $1.20) − (50% × $1.00) = +$0.10 per flip
Yes, obviously you'd take it. You expect to profit 10 cents on every dollar wagered over time. That's positive EV. Betting is the exact same thing — you're looking for situations where the payout is better than the actual probability warrants.
Positive EV (+)
The bet is priced in your favour. The sportsbook is offering more than the actual risk warrants. Long-term, this is a bet you want to take.
On SherlockPicks: shown as +4.2% EV, +7.8% EV, etc.
Negative EV (−)
The house has the edge. You might win individual bets, but over hundreds of bets you'll lose money on this type. Avoid.
Shown as "Below Threshold" on prediction cards.
The important caveat
EV is a long-run concept. On any single bet you can lose even with +8% EV — bad beats happen. The number only means something over 50, 100, 200+ bets. Don't rage-bet after one loss because the model "was wrong." The model isn't wrong — variance is just variance.
5 What Is Edge?
Edge and EV are related but not the same thing. Think of them as two different lenses on the same bet.
Edge = the probability gap
Edge is the difference between our probability estimate and what the sportsbook implies through their odds. If we say a team has a 54% chance of winning and the book's line implies only 48%, that's a 6% edge.
Our model says
54%
win probability
Sportsbook implies
48%
from the line
Edge
+6.0%
Edge vs EV — what's the difference?
Edge
The raw probability gap. How much better is our prediction than the implied odds? Higher edge = we're more confident the book has mislabelled this game.
EV
Converts that gap into expected profit per dollar. EV accounts for the payout odds — a +6% edge on even-money pays differently than +6% edge on a big underdog.
6 Using EV & Edge Together — The Decision Table
You don't need both to be huge. Here's how to read the combinations.
The Hot Edge badge on a prediction card means both EV and edge are above our recommended thresholds for that market. These are the picks the system is most confident in.
7 Unit Management — Your Most Important Tool
This matters more than any single pick. Bad unit sizing turns winning strategies into losing ones.
What is a unit?
A unit is your standard bet size — defined as a fixed percentage of your total bankroll. Using a percentage (instead of a fixed dollar amount) means your bets automatically scale as your bankroll grows or shrinks.
Recommended starting point: 2% of bankroll = 1 unit
Bankroll
$100
1 Unit (2%)
$2.00
Half Unit
$1.00
A typical week on $100 — NBA example
Let's say SherlockPicks flags 3 recommended bets on Monday. You bet 1 unit ($2) each.
| Game | Bet | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers vs Celtics | Lakers ML (-110) | $2.00 | Win +$1.82 |
| Nuggets vs Warriors | Under 221.5 (-110) | $2.00 | Win +$1.82 |
| Bucks vs Heat | Bucks -4.5 (-110) | $2.00 | Loss −$2.00 |
| Monday total (2W 1L) | $6.00 risked | Net +$1.64 | |
Running bankroll after Monday: $101.64. Your new unit size: $2.03. Small, but this compounds over a season.
The compounding effect over a season
Here's what consistent unit management looks like on a $100 bankroll — comparing good, great, and exceptional ROI over a full NBA regular season (~6 months of picks):
Conservative (5% ROI)
~$128
+$28 profit
What most professional bettors consider a great result
Strong (20% ROI)
~$140
+$40 profit
Excellent. Very achievable with discipline on high-EV picks
Exceptional (40% ROI)
~$165
+$65 profit
Hot streak territory — possible but variance-dependent
These figures assume flat 1-unit bets at -110 odds (standard spread/total vig). Moneyline bets and variable Kelly sizing will change the numbers. See our Performance page for actual tracked results.
Never Do This
- × Double your bet after a loss to "get it back" — this is the fastest way to blow a bankroll
- × Bet 5+ units on a single game no matter how confident you feel
- × Use rent money — only ever bet what you're willing to lose completely
- × Chase losses late at night with bigger bets
Always Do This
- ✓ Set a fixed unit size at the start of each month and stick to it
- ✓ Max 1–1.5 units per bet unless you have strong conviction and the EV supports it
- ✓ Track every bet — wins, losses, sport, market. Use our Ledger page
- ✓ Recalculate your unit size monthly as your bankroll changes
8 What Does ROI Actually Mean?
ROI (Return on Investment) is how we measure performance over time — and how to put any winning percentage in context.
The formula in plain English
ROI = Total Profit ÷ Total Amount Wagered × 100
$40 profit on $100 wagered = 40% ROI
Notice it's profit on amount wagered — not on your starting bankroll. If you place 50 bets of $2 each ($100 total wagered) and profit $40, that's 40% ROI regardless of what your starting bankroll was.
Context — what's actually good?
9 Red Flags — When to Pause Before Betting
High EV is not a green light on its own. These situations warrant a second look before you place anything.
Late injury news on a star player
If a key starter is ruled out hours before tip-off and our pick went out this morning, the model hasn't seen it. The line will have moved but our EV won't have. Skip and re-check after the next prediction run.
Line has moved significantly
If the line opened at -3 and is now -7, sharp money moved it. Our EV was calculated against the original line. The current line may no longer offer value — always check the live line before betting.
Outdoor sports in bad weather
Wind, rain, and cold affect MLB totals and NFL scoring heavily. A total of 46.5 in a game forecast for 25mph wind and rain is a completely different bet. Always check game-day weather for outdoor venues.
Extreme public loading on one side
If 85%+ of public bets are on one team and our pick agrees with the public, the value may already be gone. Sharp bettors move lines by betting the other side. When public and sharp money disagree, follow the sharps.
Extreme back-to-backs (NBA/NHL)
Teams on the second night of a back-to-back (especially away games) have measurably worse performance. We account for rest in our predictions, but if a team is playing their 4th game in 6 nights, weight that extra.
MLB pitcher not yet confirmed
In baseball the starting pitcher is the single biggest variable in the game. If our MLB pick was generated with a placeholder or "probable" pitcher, always verify the confirmed starter before placing.
10 Quick Glossary
The terms you'll encounter most often on SherlockPicks and at any sportsbook.
Ready to put this into practice?
Check today's picks, track your bets in the Ledger, or review our Performance history.