Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.30
Prob
52.4%
EV/u
0.682
Stake
0.68u
Won
+1.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
51.9%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
50.6%
EV/u
0.087
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
51.6%
EV/u
0.145
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
52.0%
EV/u
0.202
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
50.8%
EV/u
0.585
Stake
0.74u
Lost
-0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.15
Prob
51.9%
EV/u
0.065
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Houston Astros
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.510
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.121
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.751
Stake
0.34u
Won
+1.02u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.536
Stake
0.70u
Won
+1.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.975
Stake
0.59u
Won
+2.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
49.8%
EV/u
0.201
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
53.1%
EV/u
0.376
Stake
0.81u
Lost
-0.81u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.146
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
36.7%
EV/u
0.223
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
48.0%
EV/u
0.037
Stake
0.05u
Won
+0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
37.3%
EV/u
0.060
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
4.60
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.440
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.83u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
4.60
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
1.161
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.325
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
49.5%
EV/u
0.064
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
54.0%
EV/u
0.201
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
52.1%
EV/u
0.623
Stake
0.74u
Lost
-0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
49.3%
EV/u
0.452
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
1.067
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
48.0%
EV/u
0.383
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
38.5%
EV/u
0.139
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
37.3%
EV/u
0.412
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
38.2%
EV/u
0.773
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.299
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.596
Stake
0.69u
Lost
-0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.216
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.072
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
36.3%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.10u
Won
+0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
41.0%
EV/u
0.434
Stake
0.67u
Lost
-0.67u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
48.6%
EV/u
0.066
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.133
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
36.4%
EV/u
0.276
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
28.8%
EV/u
0.598
Stake
0.86u
Won
+1.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.217
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
3.60
Prob
33.4%
EV/u
0.204
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
42.2%
EV/u
0.897
Stake
0.57u
Won
+2.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.35
Prob
36.5%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.044
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
37.4%
EV/u
0.302
Stake
0.89u
Lost
-0.89u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
36.8%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.341
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.10
Prob
34.6%
EV/u
0.071
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.619
Stake
0.57u
Won
+1.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.155
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
38.7%
EV/u
0.175
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.200
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
43.9%
EV/u
0.250
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.500
Stake
0.40u
Won
+1.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
34.0%
EV/u
0.219
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
3.30
Prob
38.2%
EV/u
0.238
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.221
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.80
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.558
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
40.7%
EV/u
1.234
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
52.0%
EV/u
0.197
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
4.70
Prob
38.4%
EV/u
1.037
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.162
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
0.326
Stake
0.74u
Won
+1.78u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.280
Stake
0.40u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.176
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.941
Stake
0.34u
Won
+1.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.233
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.284
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
4.40
Prob
52.4%
EV/u
0.554
Stake
0.22u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
3.80
Prob
38.0%
EV/u
0.444
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.156
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.83u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
52.6%
EV/u
0.085
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
1.073
Stake
0.60u
Lost
-0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
4.20
Prob
49.4%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.425
Stake
0.86u
Lost
-0.86u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.768
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.090
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
4.80
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.866
Stake
0.46u
Won
+1.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.217
Stake
0.70u
Lost
-0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
40.9%
EV/u
0.196
Stake
0.64u
Lost
-0.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.056
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
38.1%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.80
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.531
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
4.90
Prob
49.5%
EV/u
0.639
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.20
Prob
31.1%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
52.6%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
44.8%
EV/u
0.071
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.382
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.82u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.474
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
51.0%
EV/u
0.556
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
60.6%
EV/u
0.537
Stake
0.72u
Won
+1.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
48.6%
EV/u
0.356
Stake
0.56u
Lost
-0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
51.3%
EV/u
0.163
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
53.9%
EV/u
0.140
Stake
0.06u
Won
+0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
4.70
Prob
47.8%
EV/u
1.248
Stake
0.32u
Won
+1.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
54.3%
EV/u
0.154
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.34u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.