Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.146
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
3.80
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.659
Stake
0.41u
Won
+1.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.160
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.178
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.149
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.580
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
41.0%
EV/u
0.241
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
4.10
Prob
47.9%
EV/u
0.962
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
4.20
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.732
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.80
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.591
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
44.0%
EV/u
0.389
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
4.30
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
1.050
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.387
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
4.80
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.946
Stake
0.32u
Won
+1.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.80
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.597
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.081
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
43.9%
EV/u
0.140
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
48.6%
EV/u
0.517
Stake
0.68u
Won
+1.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.10
Prob
52.5%
EV/u
0.055
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.336
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
53.0%
EV/u
0.220
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
48.0%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.154
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.039
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.489
Stake
1.25u
Won
+2.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
48.4%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.241
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
33.7%
EV/u
0.188
Stake
0.47u
Won
+0.66u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.199
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.22u
Won
+0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.193
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.300
Stake
0.73u
Won
+1.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.358
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.341
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.311
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.468
Stake
0.62u
Lost
-0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.065
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.134
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.046
Stake
0.05u
Won
+0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
49.1%
EV/u
0.076
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
44.8%
EV/u
0.165
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.373
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.762
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.93u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.371
Stake
0.52u
Lost
-0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
37.5%
EV/u
0.955
Stake
0.34u
Won
+1.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.329
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
40.4%
EV/u
0.525
Stake
0.66u
Won
+1.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.123
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.078
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.174
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
43.9%
EV/u
0.145
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.367
Stake
0.50u
Won
+1.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.291
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.87u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.095
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.146
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.417
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.80
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.623
Stake
0.46u
Won
+1.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.179
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
36.9%
EV/u
0.230
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
47.9%
EV/u
0.319
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.326
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.335
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.219
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
57.2%
EV/u
0.397
Stake
0.52u
Won
+0.78u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.053
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
1.95
Prob
56.2%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.167
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
54.1%
EV/u
0.127
Stake
0.55u
Won
+0.66u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
35.7%
EV/u
0.143
Stake
0.44u
Won
+0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
47.9%
EV/u
0.033
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.05
Prob
52.0%
EV/u
0.022
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
51.9%
EV/u
0.086
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.15
Prob
27.8%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.76u
Won
+0.87u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
52.4%
EV/u
0.135
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
54.9%
EV/u
0.343
Stake
0.78u
Won
+1.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.10
Prob
59.7%
EV/u
0.181
Stake
0.58u
Won
+0.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
52.7%
EV/u
0.147
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.00
Prob
54.8%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.11u
Won
+0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
56.9%
EV/u
0.063
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
52.6%
EV/u
0.414
Stake
1.28u
Won
+2.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.304
Stake
0.52u
Won
+1.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.05
Prob
67.8%
EV/u
0.298
Stake
0.82u
Won
+0.86u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.087
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
1.95
Prob
62.1%
EV/u
0.146
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
56.0%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.211
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
57.6%
EV/u
0.213
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
50.2%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.10u
Won
+0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
1.91
Prob
67.9%
EV/u
0.217
Stake
0.69u
Won
+0.63u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.