Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
37.8%
EV/u
0.221
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
New York Yankees
home
Odds
4.10
Prob
38.9%
EV/u
0.595
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.0%
EV/u
0.217
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
33.3%
EV/u
0.401
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
3.70
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.437
Stake
0.48u
Won
+1.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
56.2%
EV/u
0.410
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
48.6%
EV/u
0.673
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
3.30
Prob
37.1%
EV/u
0.203
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.154
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
34.9%
EV/u
0.320
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
36.0%
EV/u
0.261
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.263
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.494
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
38.4%
EV/u
0.728
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.84u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
4.70
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
1.101
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.321
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.894
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.80
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.375
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.513
Stake
0.52u
Lost
-0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.831
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.298
Stake
0.43u
Won
+1.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.433
Stake
0.34u
Won
+1.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.578
Stake
0.35u
Won
+1.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.668
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
4.80
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.633
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
42.2%
EV/u
0.100
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.279
Stake
0.58u
Won
+1.04u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.549
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
34.6%
EV/u
0.585
Stake
0.44u
Won
+1.01u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.597
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
3.80
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.699
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.653
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
4.50
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.652
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
4.30
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.798
Stake
0.34u
Won
+1.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.479
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.495
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.498
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
44.6%
EV/u
0.593
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.576
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.096
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.168
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.285
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.191
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
1.076
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.238
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.393
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.35
Prob
34.6%
EV/u
0.102
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
4.70
Prob
49.9%
EV/u
0.655
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
4.60
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.883
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.260
Stake
0.47u
Won
+1.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
New York Mets
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.628
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.119
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.578
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.469
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.321
Stake
0.69u
Lost
-0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
home
Odds
3.60
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.463
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
4.80
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.816
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
39.2%
EV/u
0.567
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.212
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
1.094
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.386
Stake
0.65u
Lost
-0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
4.80
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
1.155
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
4.40
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.592
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.730
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.351
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.525
Stake
0.36u
Won
+1.04u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.613
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.191
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.788
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.192
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.878
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.587
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.853
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.158
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.161
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.254
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.329
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.182
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.331
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.401
Stake
0.42u
Won
+1.01u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
4.80
Prob
35.8%
EV/u
0.719
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
53.1%
EV/u
0.352
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.118
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.319
Stake
0.44u
Won
+0.77u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.557
Stake
0.53u
Won
+1.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.632
Stake
0.62u
Lost
-0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.90
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.452
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.