Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
39.7%
EV/u
0.427
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
2.84
Prob
39.6%
EV/u
0.296
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.82
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.51
Prob
40.4%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
39.6%
EV/u
0.066
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.98
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.346
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.144
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.52
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.149
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.42
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.069
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
39.6%
EV/u
0.205
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.36
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.037
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
2.76
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.249
Stake
0.78u
Lost
-0.78u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.58
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.171
Stake
0.61u
Lost
-0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.64
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.196
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
home
Odds
3.09
Prob
39.5%
EV/u
0.199
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.73u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.57
Prob
39.6%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.03
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.377
Stake
0.72u
Won
+1.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.96
Prob
39.5%
EV/u
0.348
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.79
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.266
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.08
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.392
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.66
Prob
39.4%
EV/u
0.226
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.44
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.552
Stake
0.45u
Won
+1.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.68
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.214
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.21
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.084
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.06
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.179
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.304
Stake
1.11u
Lost
-1.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.123
Stake
0.53u
Won
+0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.12
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.043
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.84
Prob
52.8%
EV/u
0.464
Stake
0.80u
Lost
-0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
3.01
Prob
52.8%
EV/u
0.549
Stake
1.00u
Won
+2.01u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.39
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.028
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.99
Prob
50.4%
EV/u
0.470
Stake
1.27u
Lost
-1.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.29
Prob
51.1%
EV/u
0.111
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.46
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.083
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.07
Prob
53.0%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.86
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.437
Stake
0.70u
Lost
-0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.87
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.303
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.03
Prob
58.5%
EV/u
0.126
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.09
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.031
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.64
Prob
44.8%
EV/u
0.163
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.51
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.147
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.27
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.02
Prob
53.1%
EV/u
0.028
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.14
Prob
51.8%
EV/u
0.058
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
50.4%
EV/u
0.235
Stake
0.85u
Lost
-0.85u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.197
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
50.2%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.08
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.027
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.58
Prob
53.7%
EV/u
0.354
Stake
0.57u
Won
+0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.18
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.070
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.09
Prob
53.9%
EV/u
0.073
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.287
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.15
Prob
52.7%
EV/u
0.079
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.39
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.161
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.28
Prob
52.4%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
51.4%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
3.06
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.537
Stake
1.03u
Won
+2.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
50.6%
EV/u
0.385
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.83u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.74
Prob
51.1%
EV/u
0.369
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
52.3%
EV/u
0.355
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.76u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.42
Prob
54.8%
EV/u
0.243
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.38
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.06u
Won
+0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.51
Prob
50.6%
EV/u
0.246
Stake
0.90u
Lost
-0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.00
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.022
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.39
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.163
Stake
0.67u
Won
+0.93u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.53
Prob
49.9%
EV/u
0.125
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.19
Prob
49.9%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.69
Prob
51.4%
EV/u
0.353
Stake
1.02u
Lost
-1.02u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.48
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.50u
Won
+0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
3.03
Prob
57.7%
EV/u
0.699
Stake
1.50u
Won
+3.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.102
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.18
Prob
49.6%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.42
Prob
53.9%
EV/u
0.225
Stake
0.86u
Won
+1.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.11
Prob
53.2%
EV/u
0.070
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.12
Prob
55.2%
EV/u
0.111
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.481
Stake
0.97u
Lost
-0.97u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
51.8%
EV/u
0.114
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.08
Prob
56.4%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.43
Prob
49.7%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.47
Prob
52.9%
EV/u
0.226
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
53.5%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.58
Prob
52.2%
EV/u
0.317
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.19
Prob
54.8%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.26
Prob
50.9%
EV/u
0.094
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.57
Prob
57.6%
EV/u
0.108
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.31
Prob
48.8%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.78
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.658
Stake
0.80u
Won
+2.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
1.85
Prob
59.0%
EV/u
0.041
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.26
Prob
53.4%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
3.05
Prob
51.7%
EV/u
0.537
Stake
1.05u
Won
+2.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
1.99
Prob
55.0%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.61
Prob
51.4%
EV/u
0.314
Stake
0.87u
Won
+1.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.67
Prob
50.9%
EV/u
0.330
Stake
0.93u
Lost
-0.93u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.02
Prob
55.3%
EV/u
0.065
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.71
Prob
49.6%
EV/u
0.315
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.47
Prob
53.4%
EV/u
0.237
Stake
0.55u
Won
+0.81u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.32
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.076
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
away
Odds
3.02
Prob
52.0%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.97
Prob
52.2%
EV/u
0.039
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
1.97
Prob
55.3%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.22u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.