Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
49.9%
EV/u
0.386
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
55.5%
EV/u
0.272
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.48
Prob
52.1%
EV/u
0.215
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.78
Prob
56.9%
EV/u
0.197
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.13
Prob
50.8%
EV/u
0.173
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.36
Prob
50.0%
EV/u
0.119
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.234
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.53
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.276
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.144
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.057
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.11
Prob
52.9%
EV/u
0.063
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.41
Prob
52.0%
EV/u
0.254
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.44
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.087
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.18
Prob
54.0%
EV/u
0.190
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
51.1%
EV/u
0.214
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.236
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.93
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.306
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.47
Prob
49.7%
EV/u
0.159
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.73
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.228
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.64
Prob
50.9%
EV/u
0.316
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.44
Prob
50.3%
EV/u
0.342
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.78u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
50.5%
EV/u
0.357
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.71
Prob
53.5%
EV/u
0.415
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.93
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.333
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.67
Prob
51.1%
EV/u
0.334
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.69
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.457
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.71
Prob
49.6%
EV/u
0.315
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
52.1%
EV/u
0.096
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.51
Prob
50.4%
EV/u
0.240
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.57
Prob
50.5%
EV/u
0.271
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.47
Prob
49.9%
EV/u
0.163
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.19
Prob
54.3%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.17u
Won
+0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
52.9%
EV/u
0.217
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.29
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.076
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
49.3%
EV/u
0.276
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
49.5%
EV/u
0.215
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.91
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.338
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.76u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
2.72
Prob
49.4%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.11u
Won
+0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
3.09
Prob
52.4%
EV/u
0.576
Stake
0.62u
Won
+1.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.39
Prob
49.8%
EV/u
0.321
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
55.0%
EV/u
0.145
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.62
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.301
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
home
Odds
3.24
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.680
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.07
Prob
44.8%
EV/u
0.392
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
55.4%
EV/u
0.353
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.119
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.94
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.295
Stake
0.57u
Won
+1.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
51.9%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.076
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.31
Prob
48.9%
EV/u
0.076
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
44.0%
EV/u
0.104
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.52
Prob
50.2%
EV/u
0.240
Stake
0.76u
Won
+1.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
away
Odds
3.17
Prob
50.6%
EV/u
0.128
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.76
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.211
Stake
0.57u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.82
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.181
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.81
Prob
53.7%
EV/u
0.299
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
48.8%
EV/u
0.220
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.27
Prob
51.9%
EV/u
0.181
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.58
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.202
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.21
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.351
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
4.04
Prob
56.4%
EV/u
0.302
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.06
Prob
40.5%
EV/u
0.309
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.92
Prob
52.5%
EV/u
0.496
Stake
0.64u
Lost
-0.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.67
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.235
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.22
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.214
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.57
Prob
51.1%
EV/u
0.412
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.86
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.323
Stake
0.61u
Lost
-0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.74
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.084
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.68
Prob
51.2%
EV/u
0.343
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.72
Prob
48.8%
EV/u
0.069
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
51.3%
EV/u
0.354
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.27
Prob
52.7%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.93
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.189
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.87u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
48.6%
EV/u
0.056
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.46
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.144
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.98
Prob
50.4%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.149
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.61
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.24
Prob
49.1%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.92u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.29
Prob
51.3%
EV/u
0.140
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
3.02
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.180
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
52.4%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.54
Prob
47.8%
EV/u
0.191
Stake
0.50u
Won
+0.77u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.97
Prob
52.3%
EV/u
0.060
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.06
Prob
51.8%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.01
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.208
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.84u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.62
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.117
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.19
Prob
52.1%
EV/u
0.078
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.36
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.451
Stake
0.61u
Won
+1.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.43
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.100
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.71
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.101
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.74
Prob
51.1%
EV/u
0.370
Stake
0.68u
Won
+1.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.84
Prob
49.4%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
3.08
Prob
44.8%
EV/u
0.348
Stake
0.50u
Won
+1.04u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
51.0%
EV/u
0.179
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.41
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.38
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.077
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.17u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.