Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.59
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.26
Prob
38.2%
EV/u
0.024
Stake
0.22u
Won
+0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.38
Prob
40.9%
EV/u
0.398
Stake
0.91u
Lost
-0.91u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.51
Prob
39.4%
EV/u
0.094
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.121
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.405
Stake
0.37u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.02
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.264
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.49
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.043
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
39.7%
EV/u
0.171
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.16
Prob
39.7%
EV/u
0.377
Stake
0.65u
Won
+1.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.83
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
34.5%
EV/u
0.292
Stake
0.91u
Won
+1.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.89
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.160
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.230
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.72
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.17u
Won
+0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.79
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.058
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.93
Prob
37.3%
EV/u
0.348
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.74
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.610
Stake
0.45u
Won
+1.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.192
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.39
Prob
50.2%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.056
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.88
Prob
38.9%
EV/u
0.758
Stake
0.52u
Lost
-0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.43
Prob
50.2%
EV/u
0.153
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.055
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.59
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.086
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.52
Prob
35.4%
EV/u
0.207
Stake
0.62u
Won
+0.94u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.68
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.036
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.96
Prob
36.6%
EV/u
0.337
Stake
0.77u
Won
+1.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
47.9%
EV/u
0.092
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.79
Prob
40.8%
EV/u
0.119
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.54
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
3.34
Prob
39.4%
EV/u
0.290
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.91u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.82
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.227
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.66u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.12
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.233
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.57
Prob
36.1%
EV/u
0.164
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
4.08
Prob
49.1%
EV/u
0.494
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
2.79
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.176
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
3.51
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.471
Stake
0.57u
Won
+1.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.111
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.69
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.058
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.57
Prob
39.2%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.88
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.502
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.150
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.86
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.593
Stake
0.60u
Lost
-0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.76
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.192
Stake
0.44u
Won
+0.77u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.58
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.147
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
40.8%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
3.05
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.321
Stake
0.55u
Won
+1.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
New York Yankees
away
Odds
3.16
Prob
51.4%
EV/u
0.102
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.83
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.03
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.199
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.73u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
3.08
Prob
41.0%
EV/u
0.237
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.09
Prob
38.7%
EV/u
0.339
Stake
0.57u
Won
+1.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.59
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.393
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.93u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.66
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.057
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.84
Prob
39.1%
EV/u
0.270
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.93
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.183
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.83
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.206
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.22
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.248
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.46
Prob
44.5%
EV/u
0.046
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.16
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.205
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.82u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.56
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.055
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.322
Stake
0.78u
Lost
-0.78u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.44
Prob
35.8%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.09
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.221
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.01
Prob
53.8%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.22
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.294
Stake
0.73u
Lost
-0.73u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.81
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.099
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.09
Prob
53.2%
EV/u
0.138
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
away
Odds
3.46
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.350
Stake
0.77u
Lost
-0.77u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.24
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.305
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.83
Prob
50.3%
EV/u
0.137
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.180
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.46
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.076
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.98
Prob
54.7%
EV/u
0.072
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.064
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
3.76
Prob
51.3%
EV/u
0.529
Stake
0.47u
Won
+1.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.24
Prob
54.9%
EV/u
0.216
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.52
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.133
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
3.09
Prob
53.1%
EV/u
0.162
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.11
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.191
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
51.5%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.64
Prob
50.0%
EV/u
0.058
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
49.7%
EV/u
0.378
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
3.09
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.359
Stake
0.72u
Lost
-0.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
55.3%
EV/u
0.058
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.81
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.125
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
48.8%
EV/u
0.314
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.01
Prob
51.1%
EV/u
0.148
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.71
Prob
54.0%
EV/u
0.430
Stake
0.60u
Won
+1.03u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
47.9%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
4.04
Prob
49.3%
EV/u
0.608
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
49.1%
EV/u
0.474
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.94
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.392
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.57
Prob
47.9%
EV/u
0.208
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.65
Prob
53.4%
EV/u
0.352
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.