Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
38.9%
EV/u
0.025
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.39
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.063
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.72
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.93
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.346
Stake
0.92u
Lost
-0.92u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.83
Prob
38.9%
EV/u
0.085
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
3.36
Prob
31.2%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.63
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.021
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.086
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.75
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.373
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.89
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.408
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.76u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
New York Yankees
away
Odds
4.51
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.656
Stake
0.45u
Won
+1.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
3.28
Prob
35.3%
EV/u
0.139
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.44
Prob
29.0%
EV/u
0.039
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
2.94
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.22u
Won
+0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.33
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.61
Prob
47.8%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.14
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.76
Prob
37.7%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
3.25
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.387
Stake
0.62u
Won
+1.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.78
Prob
39.2%
EV/u
0.073
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.42
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.309
Stake
0.47u
Won
+1.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.32
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.271
Stake
0.43u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.69
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.090
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.92
Prob
39.4%
EV/u
0.158
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.19
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.213
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.74
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.61
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.39
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.298
Stake
0.68u
Lost
-0.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.71
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.54
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.385
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.71
Prob
39.1%
EV/u
0.511
Stake
0.68u
Lost
-0.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.58
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.086
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
3.22
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.235
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.17u
Won
+0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.76
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.471
Stake
0.61u
Won
+1.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.64
Prob
40.5%
EV/u
0.022
Stake
0.11u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.04
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.168
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
away
Odds
4.19
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.625
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.77
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.022
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.86
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.066
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.72
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.93
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.126
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.73u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.82
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.077
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.51
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.116
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.67u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.030
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.86
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.160
Stake
0.48u
Won
+0.89u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.76
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.120
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.01
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.040
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.63
Prob
39.4%
EV/u
0.056
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.23
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.228
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.91u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Cleveland Guardians
home
Odds
2.94
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.161
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.265
Stake
0.48u
Won
+1.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
3.31
Prob
40.9%
EV/u
0.325
Stake
0.59u
Won
+1.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.74
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.046
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
3.36
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.339
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.94u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.06
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Cleveland Guardians
home
Odds
3.70
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
0.472
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.97
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
3.48
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.632
Stake
0.70u
Won
+1.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
3.14
Prob
35.9%
EV/u
0.109
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.74
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.057
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.34
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.315
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.81
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.538
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
3.39
Prob
38.0%
EV/u
0.262
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.99
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.149
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.19
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.272
Stake
0.68u
Lost
-0.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.71
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.383
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.029
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.54
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.385
Stake
0.55u
Won
+1.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
3.08
Prob
40.5%
EV/u
0.401
Stake
1.04u
Lost
-1.04u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.66
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.198
Stake
0.60u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.94
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.043
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.51
Prob
56.1%
EV/u
0.064
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.100
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.91
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.525
Stake
0.65u
Lost
-0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.214
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.64
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.109
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.57
Prob
48.8%
EV/u
0.423
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.29
Prob
36.4%
EV/u
0.047
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
3.45
Prob
36.0%
EV/u
0.590
Stake
0.68u
Won
+1.67u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.56
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.139
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
3.11
Prob
39.6%
EV/u
0.207
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.82u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.26
Prob
48.8%
EV/u
0.085
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
34.4%
EV/u
0.239
Stake
0.61u
Lost
-0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.26
Prob
52.8%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
3.01
Prob
37.3%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.79
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.084
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.28
Prob
37.3%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.186
Stake
0.61u
Won
+0.98u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.79
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.182
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.079
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.91
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.043
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.83
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.286
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
1.69
Prob
11.4%
EV/u
0.188
Stake
0.53u
Won
+0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.53
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.131
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.