Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
3.25
Prob
37.9%
EV/u
0.208
Stake
0.51u
Won
+1.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
3.44
Prob
50.8%
EV/u
0.079
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.072
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.92
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.036
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.199
Stake
0.61u
Lost
-0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.7%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.84
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.298
Stake
0.89u
Won
+1.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.04
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.48u
Won
+0.98u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
3.34
Prob
35.0%
EV/u
0.150
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.56
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.026
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
3.15
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.295
Stake
0.75u
Lost
-0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.98
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.74
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.274
Stake
0.85u
Lost
-0.85u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.82
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.402
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.79
Prob
40.4%
EV/u
0.108
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.83
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.211
Stake
0.64u
Lost
-0.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.64
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.45
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.250
Stake
0.56u
Lost
-0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.89
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.054
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.06
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.88
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.057
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.139
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.88
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.92
Prob
41.0%
EV/u
0.175
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.84
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.030
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.51
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.030
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.61
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.44u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
3.08
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.26
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.180
Stake
0.45u
Won
+1.02u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.71
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.118
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.33
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.200
Stake
0.48u
Won
+1.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.74
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.154
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.58
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.56
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.060
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.76
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.096
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.14
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.86u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.84
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.175
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.51
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.291
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
3.03
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
home
Odds
3.39
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.548
Stake
0.86u
Won
+2.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.92
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.53
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.155
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.49
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.32
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.32
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.041
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.36
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.82
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.04
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.06
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.109
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.228
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.06
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.121
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
3.26
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.478
Stake
0.70u
Lost
-0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.32
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.207
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.04
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.119
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.94
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.073
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.12
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.137
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.86
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.306
Stake
0.66u
Lost
-0.66u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.38
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.061
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.12
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.53
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.153
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.81
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.05u
Won
+0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.46
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.259
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
away
Odds
3.09
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.73
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.246
Stake
0.78u
Won
+1.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.54
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.157
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.46
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.083
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.58
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.174
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.97
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.081
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.04
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.108
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.26
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.89
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.316
Stake
0.74u
Lost
-0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.084
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.04
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.100
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.67
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.198
Stake
0.66u
Won
+1.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.133
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
3.41
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.227
Stake
0.51u
Won
+1.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.92
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.324
Stake
0.90u
Lost
-0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.29
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.236
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.76
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.253
Stake
0.67u
Won
+1.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.83
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.409
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.78
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.375
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.96
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.083
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.64u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.48
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.081
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.09
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.135
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.28
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.030
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.89
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.317
Stake
0.92u
Won
+1.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.17
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.154
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.67
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
3.83
Prob
47.8%
EV/u
0.456
Stake
0.58u
Won
+1.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.56
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.16
Prob
49.6%
EV/u
0.025
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.84
Prob
52.7%
EV/u
0.366
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.