Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 15, 2026 11:44 AM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.242
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
2.62
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.189
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.55
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.611
Stake
0.45u
Won
+1.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
New York Mets
home
Odds
3.05
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.284
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.88u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.35
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.481
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.293
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.62
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.190
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.301
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.53
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.208
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.297
Stake
0.76u
Won
+1.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.334
Stake
0.87u
Lost
-0.87u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.58
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.095
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.33
Prob
38.1%
EV/u
0.069
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.74
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.270
Stake
0.85u
Lost
-0.85u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.027
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.061
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.63
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.203
Stake
0.54u
Won
+1.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.040
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros
home
Odds
3.65
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.663
Stake
0.74u
Lost
-0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.482
Stake
0.60u
Won
+1.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.61
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.205
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.397
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
40.8%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.680
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.175
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.48
Prob
53.4%
EV/u
0.244
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.535
Stake
0.62u
Won
+1.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.464
Stake
0.88u
Won
+2.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.230
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
3.48
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.550
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.87
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.245
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.23
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.197
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.242
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.41
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.38
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.48
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.232
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.83
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.220
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.45
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.447
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.45
Prob
48.3%
EV/u
0.272
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.83u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
40.7%
EV/u
0.331
Stake
0.51u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.056
Stake
0.06u
Won
+0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
4.55
Prob
48.0%
EV/u
0.738
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.58
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
0.121
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.26
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.021
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.275
Stake
0.66u
Lost
-0.66u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.68
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.403
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.59
Prob
44.5%
EV/u
0.058
Stake
0.10u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
49.8%
EV/u
0.412
Stake
0.99u
Lost
-0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.221
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.32
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.031
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.250
Stake
0.74u
Won
+1.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
3.05
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.303
Stake
0.51u
Won
+1.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
40.8%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.44
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.74
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.293
Stake
0.58u
Won
+1.01u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.74
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.134
Stake
0.51u
Won
+0.77u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.766
Stake
0.60u
Lost
-0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.24
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.041
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.29
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.47
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.029
Stake
0.05u
Won
+0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.63
Prob
48.8%
EV/u
0.258
Stake
0.81u
Lost
-0.81u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.356
Stake
0.94u
Lost
-0.94u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.73
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.64u
Won
+1.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.23
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.029
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.48
Prob
46.5%
EV/u
0.098
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.135
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.83
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.247
Stake
0.69u
Lost
-0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.380
Stake
1.03u
Lost
-1.03u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.044
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.246
Stake
0.79u
Lost
-0.79u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.154
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.190
Stake
0.53u
Won
+0.98u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.03
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.208
Stake
0.56u
Won
+1.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.68
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.526
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.81
Prob
49.4%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.72
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.18
Prob
49.3%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.54
Prob
52.3%
EV/u
0.258
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.78
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.237
Stake
0.72u
Lost
-0.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.92
Prob
51.8%
EV/u
0.040
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
48.9%
EV/u
0.081
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.51
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.49
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.037
Stake
0.11u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.73
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.226
Stake
0.58u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.069
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.42
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.097
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.