Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 14, 2026 5:16 PM EDT
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
19.4%
EV/u
0.156
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.36u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
17.1%
EV/u
0.108
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.25u
First inning result
mlb
New York Yankees
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
18.6%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
18.8%
EV/u
0.153
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
13.0%
EV/u
0.157
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
19.6%
EV/u
0.215
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
13.3%
EV/u
0.249
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.26u
First inning result
mlb
New York Yankees
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
1.87
Prob
17.2%
EV/u
0.252
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
15.7%
EV/u
0.252
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.28u
First inning result
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.74
Prob
16.3%
EV/u
0.186
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.25u
First inning result
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
20.8%
EV/u
0.146
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
14.0%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First inning result
mlb
Washington Nationals
Baltimore Orioles
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
16.5%
EV/u
0.171
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.25u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
16.6%
EV/u
0.197
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.28u
First inning result
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.69
Prob
14.8%
EV/u
0.171
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.24u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
16.5%
EV/u
0.188
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.27u
First inning result
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
1.67
Prob
15.0%
EV/u
0.115
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.23u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
1.67
Prob
15.9%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.22u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
1.69
Prob
14.6%
EV/u
0.137
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.27u
First inning result
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
draw
Odds
1.65
Prob
16.6%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.17u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
1.63
Prob
15.0%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.21u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
18.6%
EV/u
0.138
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
16.1%
EV/u
0.123
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
22.1%
EV/u
0.148
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
16.7%
EV/u
0.175
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
22.2%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
16.6%
EV/u
0.244
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
25.0%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.23u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
20.1%
EV/u
0.087
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.21u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles
draw
Odds
1.74
Prob
18.4%
EV/u
0.131
Stake
0.49u
Won
+0.36u
First inning result
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
16.8%
EV/u
0.104
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First inning result
mlb
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
1.69
Prob
16.0%
EV/u
0.125
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.30u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
19.6%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
19.2%
EV/u
0.163
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
20.0%
EV/u
0.125
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.21u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
12.4%
EV/u
0.227
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.33u
First inning result
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
15.7%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.23u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
22.1%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
1.87
Prob
21.6%
EV/u
0.179
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
1.71
Prob
18.4%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.27u
First inning result
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
16.8%
EV/u
0.121
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.31u
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
1.74
Prob
20.2%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First inning result
mlb
Houston Astros
Cleveland Guardians
draw
Odds
1.95
Prob
19.3%
EV/u
0.207
Stake
0.53u
Won
+0.50u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Chicago Cubs
draw
Odds
1.69
Prob
16.3%
EV/u
0.098
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
1.87
Prob
18.2%
EV/u
0.194
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.31u
First inning result
mlb
Detroit Tigers
St. Louis Cardinals
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
14.4%
EV/u
0.211
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.30u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
19.6%
EV/u
0.138
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.23u
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
16.8%
EV/u
0.189
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.30u
First inning result
mlb
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
17.7%
EV/u
0.143
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First inning result
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
18.9%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.30u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
2.55
Prob
27.2%
EV/u
0.245
Stake
0.85u
Lost
-0.85u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
2.40
Prob
27.5%
EV/u
0.180
Stake
0.83u
Lost
-0.83u
First inning result
mlb
Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
29.0%
EV/u
0.448
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First inning result
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
27.9%
EV/u
0.395
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.96u
First inning result
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
4.10
Prob
30.1%
EV/u
0.234
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
21.8%
EV/u
0.093
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First inning result
mlb
Houston Astros
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
2.00
Prob
20.6%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.86u
Lost
-0.86u
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
19.8%
EV/u
0.070
Stake
0.53u
Won
+0.41u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
17.2%
EV/u
0.079
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.45u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Kansas City Royals
draw
Odds
1.95
Prob
21.4%
EV/u
0.149
Stake
0.78u
Lost
-0.78u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
draw
Odds
2.00
Prob
20.6%
EV/u
0.108
Stake
0.73u
Lost
-0.73u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
21.4%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.38u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
18.5%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First inning result
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
18.8%
EV/u
0.121
Stake
0.58u
Won
+0.53u
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
17.7%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
20.7%
EV/u
0.095
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
2.10
Prob
22.4%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.91u
Won
+1.00u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
21.4%
EV/u
0.114
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.54u
First inning result
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
19.4%
EV/u
0.101
Stake
0.61u
Lost
-0.61u
First inning result
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
20.5%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.51u
Won
+0.46u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
19.4%
EV/u
0.081
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.36u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
20.3%
EV/u
0.077
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
18.4%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.68u
Lost
-0.68u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
20.7%
EV/u
0.115
Stake
0.68u
Won
+0.62u
First inning result
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
1.95
Prob
19.3%
EV/u
0.128
Stake
0.70u
Won
+0.67u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
2.00
Prob
22.5%
EV/u
0.096
Stake
0.67u
Won
+0.67u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Tampa Bay Rays
draw
Odds
2.15
Prob
20.7%
EV/u
0.190
Stake
1.06u
Won
+1.22u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
2.00
Prob
22.4%
EV/u
0.134
Stake
0.87u
Won
+0.87u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
3.25
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.495
Stake
0.46u
Won
+1.04u
First inning result
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
3.75
Prob
36.4%
EV/u
0.363
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Yankees
home
Odds
3.60
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.668
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.81u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.496
Stake
0.43u
Won
+1.03u
First inning result
mlb
San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
3.25
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.409
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First inning result
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.906
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First inning result
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
draw
Odds
1.74
Prob
23.7%
EV/u
0.128
Stake
0.54u
Won
+0.40u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
4.25
Prob
32.2%
EV/u
0.368
Stake
0.10u
Won
+0.33u
First inning result
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
1.65
Prob
13.2%
EV/u
0.131
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.26u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
1.74
Prob
17.5%
EV/u
0.261
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.33u
First inning result
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
38.7%
EV/u
0.547
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
19.3%
EV/u
0.312
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.41u
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
19.3%
EV/u
0.187
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Guardians
home
Odds
3.60
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.532
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First inning result
mlb
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
38.0%
EV/u
0.519
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.372
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
62.0%
EV/u
0.752
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.86u
First inning result
mlb
Houston Astros
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
9.9%
EV/u
0.518
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.33u
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
40.5%
EV/u
0.237
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.38u
First inning result
mlb
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.920
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.63u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
15.0%
EV/u
0.333
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.29u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
56.5%
EV/u
0.870
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.