Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 14, 2026 5:16 PM EDT
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
30.6%
EV/u
0.331
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First inning result
mlb
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
4.70
Prob
33.0%
EV/u
0.690
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First inning result
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
37.4%
EV/u
0.573
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
New York Mets
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
34.8%
EV/u
0.463
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.45
Prob
18.8%
EV/u
0.432
Stake
0.87u
Lost
-0.87u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
36.8%
EV/u
0.490
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
30.9%
EV/u
0.489
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First inning result
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
30.3%
EV/u
0.364
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First inning result
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
18.6%
EV/u
0.083
Stake
0.58u
Won
+0.46u
First inning result
mlb
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
4.75
Prob
20.8%
EV/u
0.428
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
4.50
Prob
31.5%
EV/u
0.563
Stake
0.39u
Won
+1.37u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
4.75
Prob
28.7%
EV/u
0.364
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.86u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
4.20
Prob
23.5%
EV/u
0.406
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.96u
First inning result
mlb
Athletics
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.351
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First inning result
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
4.50
Prob
31.7%
EV/u
0.420
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
4.60
Prob
24.9%
EV/u
0.390
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
draw
Odds
1.67
Prob
13.2%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.64u
Won
+0.43u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
4.75
Prob
36.0%
EV/u
0.604
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
26.3%
EV/u
0.525
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
4.50
Prob
35.6%
EV/u
0.404
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.98u
First inning result
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
31.1%
EV/u
0.386
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First inning result
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
draw
Odds
1.74
Prob
16.8%
EV/u
0.085
Stake
0.64u
Lost
-0.64u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
2.40
Prob
28.4%
EV/u
0.219
Stake
0.98u
Won
+1.37u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
2.60
Prob
27.7%
EV/u
0.350
Stake
1.17u
Won
+1.87u
Home win
wnba
Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas Aces
away
Odds
1.77
Prob
34.0%
EV/u
0.174
Stake
0.90u
Won
+0.69u
Home win
wnba
Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas Aces
home
Odds
1.54
Prob
70.6%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
1.20u
Lost
-1.20u
Home win
wnba
Las Vegas Aces
Phoenix Mercury
home
Odds
1.69
Prob
78.7%
EV/u
0.325
Stake
1.20u
Won
+0.83u
First inning result
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
4.25
Prob
31.6%
EV/u
0.345
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
Home win
wnba
Phoenix Mercury
Minnesota Lynx
home
Odds
1.53
Prob
82.0%
EV/u
0.286
Stake
0.77u
Won
+0.41u
Home win
wnba
Indiana Fever
Las Vegas Aces
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
68.9%
EV/u
0.353
Stake
0.73u
Won
+0.99u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
32.2%
EV/u
0.351
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
30.7%
EV/u
0.534
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First inning result
mlb
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
33.3%
EV/u
0.499
Stake
0.34u
Won
+1.19u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
4.30
Prob
31.8%
EV/u
0.368
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.89u
First inning result
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
29.8%
EV/u
0.492
Stake
0.30u
Won
+1.20u
First inning result
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
3.95
Prob
34.2%
EV/u
0.353
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
32.8%
EV/u
0.378
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.90u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
30.3%
EV/u
0.364
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First inning result
mlb
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
4.70
Prob
29.7%
EV/u
0.396
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.6%
EV/u
0.314
Stake
0.40u
Won
+1.12u
First inning result
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
30.8%
EV/u
0.385
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
home
Odds
4.25
Prob
33.0%
EV/u
0.402
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
Home win
wnba
Phoenix Mercury
New York Liberty
home
Odds
1.65
Prob
79.4%
EV/u
0.317
Stake
1.20u
Won
+0.77u
First inning result
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
home
Odds
4.75
Prob
30.1%
EV/u
0.430
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
32.8%
EV/u
0.312
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.75u
Home win
wnba
New York Liberty
Phoenix Mercury
home
Odds
1.51
Prob
72.6%
EV/u
0.183
Stake
1.20u
Lost
-1.20u
Home win
wnba
Seattle Storm
Las Vegas Aces
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
73.1%
EV/u
0.543
Stake
1.50u
Won
+2.70u
Home win
wnba
Phoenix Mercury
New York Liberty
home
Odds
2.10
Prob
71.1%
EV/u
0.335
Stake
1.50u
Lost
-1.50u
Home win
wnba
Dallas Wings
Phoenix Mercury
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
78.3%
EV/u
0.726
Stake
1.50u
Won
+2.85u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
28.4%
EV/u
0.419
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
28.2%
EV/u
0.409
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
draw
Odds
2.10
Prob
25.5%
EV/u
0.123
Stake
0.75u
Lost
-0.75u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
draw
Odds
2.05
Prob
26.1%
EV/u
0.101
Stake
0.66u
Won
+0.69u
Home win
wnba
Golden State Valkyries
Atlanta Dream
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
63.7%
EV/u
0.284
Stake
0.86u
Lost
-0.86u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
New York Yankees
home
Odds
4.40
Prob
31.7%
EV/u
0.393
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
4.50
Prob
31.0%
EV/u
0.397
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
4.60
Prob
30.1%
EV/u
0.383
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
4.25
Prob
31.2%
EV/u
0.325
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First inning result
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
21.2%
EV/u
0.131
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.35u
First inning result
mlb
Miami Marlins
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
1.67
Prob
18.2%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
4.80
Prob
31.3%
EV/u
0.502
Stake
0.17u
Won
+0.65u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
22.6%
EV/u
0.175
Stake
0.51u
Won
+0.46u
First inning result
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Kansas City Royals
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
22.6%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.38u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Athletics
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
34.7%
EV/u
0.456
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First inning result
mlb
New York Mets
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
17.2%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.58u
Won
+0.45u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
4.75
Prob
34.4%
EV/u
0.633
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.86u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
draw
Odds
2.05
Prob
21.2%
EV/u
0.164
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.62u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
21.7%
EV/u
0.100
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.31u
First inning result
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
20.7%
EV/u
0.156
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
27.6%
EV/u
0.117
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.36u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Minnesota Twins
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
20.1%
EV/u
0.180
Stake
0.61u
Won
+0.55u
First inning result
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
3.90
Prob
33.5%
EV/u
0.305
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
4.60
Prob
31.0%
EV/u
0.428
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.87
Prob
23.5%
EV/u
0.133
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First inning result
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
21.9%
EV/u
0.135
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First inning result
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Athletics
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
15.1%
EV/u
0.265
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.36u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
34.1%
EV/u
0.431
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First inning result
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Minnesota Twins
draw
Odds
2.05
Prob
21.0%
EV/u
0.286
Stake
0.54u
Won
+0.57u
First inning result
mlb
Washington Nationals
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
21.9%
EV/u
0.138
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.26u
First inning result
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
1.63
Prob
16.4%
EV/u
0.123
Stake
0.50u
Won
+0.31u
First inning result
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
19.0%
EV/u
0.236
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First inning result
mlb
Texas Rangers
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
17.1%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.57u
Won
+0.46u
First inning result
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
1.74
Prob
19.6%
EV/u
0.094
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
Home win
wnba
Chicago Sky
Atlanta Dream
home
Odds
4.60
Prob
70.1%
EV/u
0.697
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
Home win
wnba
Dallas Wings
Las Vegas Aces
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
67.1%
EV/u
0.431
Stake
1.03u
Lost
-1.03u
Home win
wnba
Los Angeles Sparks
Washington Mystics
home
Odds
1.80
Prob
67.1%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.97u
Won
+0.78u
Home win
wnba
Golden State Valkyries
Phoenix Mercury
home
Odds
1.74
Prob
72.3%
EV/u
0.255
Stake
1.20u
Lost
-1.20u
First inning result
mlb
New York Yankees
Chicago Cubs
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
22.9%
EV/u
0.101
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First inning result
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Miami Marlins
draw
Odds
1.83
Prob
23.0%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.57u
Won
+0.48u
First inning result
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
1.85
Prob
24.8%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.39u
First inning result
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
20.7%
EV/u
0.138
Stake
0.54u
Won
+0.43u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
4.25
Prob
32.9%
EV/u
0.399
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.85u
First inning result
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
draw
Odds
1.69
Prob
16.0%
EV/u
0.179
Stake
1.06u
Won
+0.73u
First inning result
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
1.87
Prob
24.1%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.69u
Won
+0.60u
First inning result
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
19.2%
EV/u
0.165
Stake
0.76u
Won
+0.58u
First inning result
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
1.77
Prob
13.8%
EV/u
0.186
Stake
0.82u
Lost
-0.82u
First inning result
mlb
Kansas City Royals
New York Mets
draw
Odds
1.87
Prob
17.9%
EV/u
0.093
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.37u
Home win
wnba
Indiana Fever
Atlanta Dream
home
Odds
1.87
Prob
79.0%
EV/u
0.397
Stake
1.20u
Won
+1.04u
First inning result
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
1.80
Prob
17.4%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.81u
Lost
-0.81u
First inning result
mlb
Athletics
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
1.91
Prob
20.4%
EV/u
0.169
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.