Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: May 15, 2026 2:07 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
44.5%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.279
Stake
0.71u
Won
+1.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
32.0%
EV/u
0.298
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
32.0%
EV/u
0.533
Stake
0.88u
Won
+1.89u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
39.9%
EV/u
0.226
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.077
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
33.0%
EV/u
0.116
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
44.6%
EV/u
0.202
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
27.3%
EV/u
0.350
Stake
1.19u
Won
+1.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.144
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.80
Prob
30.2%
EV/u
0.832
Stake
0.59u
Won
+1.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.350
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
35.9%
EV/u
0.820
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.287
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.187
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.55
Prob
30.4%
EV/u
0.768
Stake
0.76u
Won
+1.94u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
32.1%
EV/u
0.284
Stake
0.56u
Lost
-0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.342
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.298
Stake
0.45u
Won
+1.01u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
52.0%
EV/u
0.149
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
35.8%
EV/u
0.057
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
39.1%
EV/u
0.480
Stake
1.08u
Lost
-1.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
35.8%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.53u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.033
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
37.9%
EV/u
0.047
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
34.0%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
33.7%
EV/u
0.257
Stake
0.68u
Won
+1.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
30.9%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.57u
Won
+0.86u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.25
Prob
31.7%
EV/u
0.086
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.251
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.085
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
50.3%
EV/u
0.232
Stake
0.85u
Lost
-0.85u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.63u
Lost
-0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.060
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.284
Stake
0.86u
Lost
-0.86u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.197
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.026
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
48.4%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
47.8%
EV/u
0.238
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
48.4%
EV/u
0.419
Stake
0.93u
Won
+1.86u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.143
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.093
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.073
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.078
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.256
Stake
0.72u
Lost
-0.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.189
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
52.9%
EV/u
0.344
Stake
1.17u
Won
+1.87u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.223
Stake
0.54u
Won
+1.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
48.3%
EV/u
0.235
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.297
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.043
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.146
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.84u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.025
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
3.05
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.320
Stake
0.85u
Won
+1.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.35
Prob
50.0%
EV/u
0.133
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.283
Stake
0.69u
Lost
-0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.389
Stake
0.96u
Won
+2.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.022
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
47.9%
EV/u
0.380
Stake
1.06u
Lost
-1.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.109
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.539
Stake
0.43u
Won
+1.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.654
Stake
0.80u
Lost
-0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.020
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.95
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.808
Stake
0.80u
Lost
-0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Detroit Tigers
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.212
Stake
0.68u
Won
+1.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
4.60
Prob
42.2%
EV/u
1.118
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.423
Stake
0.55u
Won
+1.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.429
Stake
0.56u
Won
+1.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.055
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.364
Stake
0.52u
Won
+1.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.047
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.62u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.057
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.055
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.077
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.497
Stake
0.62u
Won
+1.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.134
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.212
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.199
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.133
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
3.30
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.371
Stake
0.88u
Lost
-0.88u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
40.9%
EV/u
0.108
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.35
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.038
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.104
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.053
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.164
Stake
0.60u
Won
+0.93u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.35
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.036
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.259
Stake
0.73u
Won
+1.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
40.8%
EV/u
0.200
Stake
0.68u
Lost
-0.68u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.