Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 15, 2026 9:17 AM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
36.9%
EV/u
0.265
Stake
0.48u
Won
+0.79u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.397
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
4.20
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.914
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.187
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.178
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.026
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
3.30
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.369
Stake
0.87u
Won
+2.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.736
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.280
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.304
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.196
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.299
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.97u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
44.5%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.162
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.074
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.102
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.056
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.274
Stake
0.61u
Won
+1.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.099
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
4.50
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.936
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.387
Stake
0.76u
Lost
-0.76u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.250
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.299
Stake
0.56u
Won
+1.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.127
Stake
0.22u
Won
+0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.201
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.257
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.101
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.279
Stake
0.76u
Won
+1.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.020
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.59u
Won
+1.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.097
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.070
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.148
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.505
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.199
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.199
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.390
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
44.8%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.179
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.295
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.163
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
43.0%
EV/u
0.087
Stake
0.17u
Won
+0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.159
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.164
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.263
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.823
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.294
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
53.0%
EV/u
0.350
Stake
0.72u
Lost
-0.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.089
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
3.70
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.803
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.05
Prob
57.8%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.192
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
50.4%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.109
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
55.9%
EV/u
0.366
Stake
1.12u
Won
+1.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.00
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.021
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
55.5%
EV/u
0.225
Stake
0.79u
Won
+1.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.327
Stake
0.82u
Lost
-0.82u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.063
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
55.4%
EV/u
0.248
Stake
0.94u
Won
+1.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.205
Stake
0.71u
Lost
-0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
52.8%
EV/u
0.543
Stake
0.61u
Won
+1.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
36.8%
EV/u
0.090
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
48.2%
EV/u
0.230
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
36.7%
EV/u
0.601
Stake
0.59u
Won
+1.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.25
Prob
35.1%
EV/u
0.058
Stake
0.06u
Won
+0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.116
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
60.5%
EV/u
0.476
Stake
1.39u
Lost
-1.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.203
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.036
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.10
Prob
54.2%
EV/u
0.084
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.96
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.418
Stake
0.67u
Won
+1.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
49.5%
EV/u
0.063
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
49.4%
EV/u
0.398
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
57.1%
EV/u
0.183
Stake
0.49u
Won
+0.59u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.351
Stake
0.57u
Won
+1.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
50.2%
EV/u
0.054
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
51.6%
EV/u
0.125
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.