Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 14, 2026 11:14 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.34
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.56u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.21
Prob
49.4%
EV/u
0.043
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.38
Prob
50.5%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.58u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.08
Prob
51.3%
EV/u
0.022
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.54
Prob
52.8%
EV/u
0.312
Stake
0.60u
Won
+0.92u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
52.2%
EV/u
0.203
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.36
Prob
53.4%
EV/u
0.186
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.92
Prob
48.4%
EV/u
0.051
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.32
Prob
50.5%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.37
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.077
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
48.3%
EV/u
0.194
Stake
0.48u
Won
+1.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.23
Prob
52.8%
EV/u
0.117
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.028
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
1.96
Prob
56.9%
EV/u
0.063
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.24
Prob
49.1%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.32
Prob
51.4%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.78u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.22
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.60u
Won
+0.73u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
51.9%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.15
Prob
54.0%
EV/u
0.102
Stake
0.52u
Won
+0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
52.7%
EV/u
0.201
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.24
Prob
52.0%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.42
Prob
53.5%
EV/u
0.215
Stake
0.83u
Lost
-0.83u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.06
Prob
51.7%
EV/u
0.021
Stake
0.25u
Won
+0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.21
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.116
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.07
Prob
52.8%
EV/u
0.044
Stake
0.17u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
48.6%
EV/u
0.024
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.16
Prob
55.5%
EV/u
0.135
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.19
Prob
50.7%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
3.23
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.451
Stake
0.80u
Lost
-0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.35
Prob
32.4%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.34
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.031
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.77
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.140
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.44
Prob
31.5%
EV/u
0.730
Stake
1.12u
Lost
-1.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.94
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.176
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.68u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.61
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.195
Stake
0.56u
Lost
-0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.025
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.02
Prob
40.8%
EV/u
0.228
Stake
0.51u
Won
+1.03u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.26
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.325
Stake
0.67u
Lost
-0.67u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.96
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.153
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.99
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.169
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.41
Prob
40.7%
EV/u
0.028
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.66
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.047
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.29
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.254
Stake
0.50u
Won
+1.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.38
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.386
Stake
0.73u
Lost
-0.73u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
40.0%
EV/u
0.090
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.029
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
32.9%
EV/u
0.586
Stake
0.65u
Lost
-0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.41
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.278
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.94
Prob
39.1%
EV/u
0.310
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.57
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.478
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.82u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.100
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.48
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.065
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.21
Prob
49.8%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.62
Prob
44.8%
EV/u
0.070
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
3.28
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.319
Stake
0.61u
Lost
-0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.59
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.024
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.21
Prob
59.0%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.81u
Won
+0.98u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
away
Odds
3.49
Prob
54.5%
EV/u
0.083
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.35
Prob
36.0%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.36
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.064
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.44
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.217
Stake
0.49u
Won
+1.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.24
Prob
35.0%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
3.03
Prob
40.8%
EV/u
0.212
Stake
0.58u
Won
+1.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.21
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.250
Stake
0.62u
Lost
-0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.84
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.255
Stake
0.76u
Won
+1.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.11
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.175
Stake
0.47u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets
home
Odds
3.21
Prob
43.5%
EV/u
0.364
Stake
0.89u
Lost
-0.89u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.148
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.46
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.079
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.14
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.109
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
46.9%
EV/u
0.032
Stake
0.11u
Won
+0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.33
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.53u
Won
+1.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.64
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.167
Stake
0.57u
Won
+0.93u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
2.49
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.56
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.143
Stake
0.52u
Lost
-0.52u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
3.03
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.84
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.150
Stake
0.46u
Won
+0.85u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.090
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.183
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Guardians
home
Odds
2.53
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.074
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.62
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.073
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.323
Stake
0.82u
Won
+1.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.171
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.38
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.91
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.126
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.54
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.036
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Guardians
home
Odds
2.44
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
43.2%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.087
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.51u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.92
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.109
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.63u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
3.13
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.329
Stake
0.84u
Won
+1.79u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
2.79
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.143
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.81u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.82
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.155
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.31
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.032
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.38
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.041
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.021
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.98
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.171
Stake
0.49u
Won
+0.97u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.45u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.