Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 15, 2026 11:17 PM EDT
First 3 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
20.9%
EV/u
0.176
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.64u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.074
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
1.89
Prob
60.7%
EV/u
0.092
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.27u
First 3 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
1.63
Prob
10.6%
EV/u
0.134
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.37u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
20.1%
EV/u
0.384
Stake
0.85u
Won
+1.74u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
53.3%
EV/u
0.051
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
10.7%
EV/u
0.982
Stake
1.50u
Won
+2.63u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
60.5%
EV/u
0.620
Stake
1.50u
Won
+2.63u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.2%
EV/u
0.300
Stake
0.39u
Won
+1.09u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.5%
EV/u
0.277
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.0%
EV/u
0.245
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.1%
EV/u
0.259
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.7%
EV/u
0.293
Stake
0.38u
Won
+1.06u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.1%
EV/u
0.278
Stake
0.36u
Won
+1.01u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.4%
EV/u
0.300
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.1%
EV/u
0.283
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.0%
EV/u
0.283
Stake
0.36u
Won
+1.01u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.2%
EV/u
0.233
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.1%
EV/u
0.232
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.0%
EV/u
0.246
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.7%
EV/u
0.271
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.98u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.8%
EV/u
0.272
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.98u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.9%
EV/u
0.255
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.1%
EV/u
0.309
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.2%
EV/u
0.317
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.2%
EV/u
0.256
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.3%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.5%
EV/u
0.247
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.90u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.0%
EV/u
0.278
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
35.5%
EV/u
0.304
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 3 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.7%
EV/u
0.250
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.90u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.8%
EV/u
0.258
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.8%
EV/u
0.300
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.5%
EV/u
0.325
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 3 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.3%
EV/u
0.283
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.8%
EV/u
0.247
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
31.9%
EV/u
0.301
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
33.5%
EV/u
0.328
Stake
0.42u
Won
+1.18u
First 3 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.8%
EV/u
0.285
Stake
0.37u
Won
+1.04u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.3%
EV/u
0.255
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.6%
EV/u
0.272
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.5%
EV/u
0.252
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
31.6%
EV/u
0.264
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.95u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
34.2%
EV/u
0.296
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 3 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
32.9%
EV/u
0.229
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.81u
First 3 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.150
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
57.1%
EV/u
0.529
Stake
1.50u
Lost
-1.50u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
49.3%
EV/u
0.059
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 3 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
50.5%
EV/u
0.262
Stake
0.93u
Won
+1.44u
First 3 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.397
Stake
0.49u
Won
+1.42u
First 3 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.25
Prob
48.0%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.97u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.20
Prob
52.9%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
1.87
Prob
59.8%
EV/u
0.065
Stake
0.10u
Won
+0.09u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
38.4%
EV/u
0.388
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
36.7%
EV/u
0.391
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 3 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
60.2%
EV/u
0.525
Stake
0.73u
Won
+1.17u
First 3 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
40.5%
EV/u
0.266
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 3 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.67
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.35u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
37.9%
EV/u
0.302
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
60.7%
EV/u
0.379
Stake
0.54u
Won
+0.78u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.220
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
36.6%
EV/u
0.160
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.28u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.95
Prob
38.5%
EV/u
0.119
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 3 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
39.2%
EV/u
0.157
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 3 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.70u
First 3 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.41u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.25
Prob
34.5%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
1.87
Prob
63.1%
EV/u
0.117
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.13u
First 3 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.10
Prob
57.1%
EV/u
0.133
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.17u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
38.9%
EV/u
0.360
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.334
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.55
Prob
30.7%
EV/u
0.311
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.64u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.470
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.96u
First 3 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.67
Prob
38.0%
EV/u
0.155
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
42.9%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
1.95
Prob
57.1%
EV/u
0.061
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.15u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.14u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
3.35
Prob
30.8%
EV/u
0.707
Stake
1.07u
Lost
-1.07u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.135
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
30.0%
EV/u
0.262
Stake
0.51u
Won
+0.74u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.226
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
44.5%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
49.2%
EV/u
0.488
Stake
0.73u
Lost
-0.73u
First 3 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.25
Prob
17.8%
EV/u
0.380
Stake
0.82u
Won
+1.03u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.527
Stake
0.88u
Lost
-0.88u
First 3 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
48.7%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 3 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
48.0%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.17u
First 3 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians
home
Odds
2.30
Prob
56.7%
EV/u
0.223
Stake
0.80u
Won
+1.04u
First 3 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.20
Prob
27.0%
EV/u
0.183
Stake
0.73u
Won
+0.88u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.15
Prob
31.9%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.21u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.45
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.205
Stake
0.47u
Won
+1.15u
First 3 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
3.15
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.103
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 3 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.38u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.120
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.188
Stake
0.44u
Won
+1.06u
First 3 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.098
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.85
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.044
Stake
0.16u
Won
+0.30u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.137
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.