Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 16, 2026 9:42 AM EDT
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.074
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.51u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.37
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.033
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.18
Prob
40.9%
EV/u
0.038
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Mets
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.104
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
First 3 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.291
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.398
Stake
1.03u
Won
+2.16u
First 3 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
42.5%
EV/u
0.051
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 3 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
40.9%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 3 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.56
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.51u
Lost
-0.51u
First 3 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.63
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.116
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 3 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.06u
Won
+0.17u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
38.1%
EV/u
0.061
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.111
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.57
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.222
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.80u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.081
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.49u
First 3 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.126
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.212
Stake
0.52u
Won
+1.17u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
40.5%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.64u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
0.041
Stake
0.15u
Won
+0.28u
First 3 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
39.0%
EV/u
0.157
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 3 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
38.7%
EV/u
0.131
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 3 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Seattle Mariners
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
41.8%
EV/u
0.161
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.59u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.78
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.42
Prob
46.2%
EV/u
0.067
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.47u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
40.4%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.06u
Lost
-0.06u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Seattle Mariners
Primary
Odds
1.87
Prob
59.5%
EV/u
0.129
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians
Primary
Odds
2.20
Prob
59.5%
EV/u
0.157
Stake
0.53u
Lost
-0.53u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Athletics
Primary
Odds
1.83
Prob
69.6%
EV/u
0.314
Stake
0.98u
Lost
-0.98u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros
Primary
Odds
2.15
Prob
59.5%
EV/u
0.151
Stake
0.65u
Won
+0.75u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Opposing
Odds
1.74
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.117
Stake
0.63u
Won
+0.47u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Miami Marlins
San Francisco Giants
Primary
Odds
1.98
Prob
59.5%
EV/u
0.139
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers
Primary
Odds
2.20
Prob
55.6%
EV/u
0.066
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Texas Rangers
San Diego Padres
Primary
Odds
2.05
Prob
59.5%
EV/u
0.144
Stake
0.69u
Won
+0.72u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tampa Bay Rays
Primary
Odds
2.15
Prob
55.6%
EV/u
0.062
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres
Primary
Odds
1.67
Prob
61.3%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.85u
Won
+0.57u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Primary
Odds
2.18
Prob
64.0%
EV/u
0.267
Stake
1.13u
Lost
-1.13u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
Primary
Odds
2.35
Prob
55.6%
EV/u
0.072
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.36u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Minnesota Twins
St. Louis Cardinals
Primary
Odds
1.87
Prob
70.7%
EV/u
0.339
Stake
1.20u
Won
+1.04u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners
Primary
Odds
1.91
Prob
64.0%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.99u
Lost
-0.99u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
Primary
Odds
1.95
Prob
70.7%
EV/u
0.365
Stake
1.20u
Won
+1.14u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
Primary
Odds
2.05
Prob
61.3%
EV/u
0.183
Stake
0.87u
Won
+0.91u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
New York Yankees
Cleveland Guardians
Primary
Odds
1.87
Prob
58.4%
EV/u
0.099
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Colorado Rockies
Primary
Odds
1.91
Prob
58.4%
EV/u
0.112
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Texas Rangers
Primary
Odds
2.20
Prob
55.6%
EV/u
0.066
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
Primary
Odds
1.87
Prob
61.3%
EV/u
0.164
Stake
0.75u
Won
+0.65u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
Primary
Odds
1.91
Prob
61.2%
EV/u
0.158
Stake
0.69u
Won
+0.63u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
Primary
Odds
1.91
Prob
58.9%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.50u
Won
+0.45u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
Primary
Odds
1.80
Prob
60.0%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.61u
Won
+0.49u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays
Opposing
Odds
1.80
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.101
Stake
0.51u
Won
+0.41u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Primary
Odds
2.10
Prob
66.9%
EV/u
0.313
Stake
1.11u
Lost
-1.11u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
Primary
Odds
1.91
Prob
66.0%
EV/u
0.258
Stake
0.89u
Won
+0.81u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Miami Marlins
Opposing
Odds
1.68
Prob
37.6%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.47u
Won
+0.32u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
Primary
Odds
1.87
Prob
58.5%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
Primary
Odds
1.87
Prob
58.4%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.23u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
Primary
Odds
1.91
Prob
63.3%
EV/u
0.205
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers
Primary
Odds
1.83
Prob
58.6%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.24u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Primary
Odds
2.15
Prob
56.3%
EV/u
0.078
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
Primary
Odds
2.10
Prob
58.0%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.25u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
Primary
Odds
1.77
Prob
65.8%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.56u
Lost
-0.56u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
Primary
Odds
1.80
Prob
58.6%
EV/u
0.098
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Seattle Mariners
Opposing
Odds
1.77
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.24u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Opposing
Odds
1.64
Prob
36.5%
EV/u
0.159
Stake
0.48u
Won
+0.31u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Houston Astros
New York Yankees
Primary
Odds
1.81
Prob
58.0%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.16u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Texas Rangers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Opposing
Odds
1.77
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.096
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Primary
Odds
2.10
Prob
66.4%
EV/u
0.308
Stake
0.58u
Won
+0.64u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Milwaukee Brewers
Opposing
Odds
1.80
Prob
39.3%
EV/u
0.142
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.23u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
Primary
Odds
1.80
Prob
62.7%
EV/u
0.173
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.29u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago White Sox
Primary
Odds
1.74
Prob
61.0%
EV/u
0.125
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.21u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
Primary
Odds
1.95
Prob
60.6%
EV/u
0.162
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
Primary
Odds
2.10
Prob
57.8%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.40u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Athletics
Opposing
Odds
1.83
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.098
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Opposing
Odds
1.77
Prob
38.7%
EV/u
0.145
Stake
0.57u
Won
+0.44u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
Opposing
Odds
1.80
Prob
36.6%
EV/u
0.191
Stake
0.72u
Lost
-0.72u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Cincinnati Reds
Primary
Odds
1.97
Prob
63.6%
EV/u
0.213
Stake
0.88u
Won
+0.85u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Athletics
Chicago White Sox
Opposing
Odds
1.98
Prob
38.0%
EV/u
0.192
Stake
0.57u
Won
+0.56u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
San Diego Padres
Opposing
Odds
2.00
Prob
30.2%
EV/u
0.358
Stake
1.09u
Won
+1.09u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
Opposing
Odds
1.80
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.092
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.27u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Athletics
Chicago White Sox
Primary
Odds
1.80
Prob
58.3%
EV/u
0.094
Stake
0.45u
Won
+0.36u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Opposing
Odds
1.91
Prob
39.3%
EV/u
0.158
Stake
0.68u
Lost
-0.68u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
Primary
Odds
2.05
Prob
61.6%
EV/u
0.190
Stake
0.87u
Lost
-0.87u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Toronto Blue Jays
Opposing
Odds
1.88
Prob
31.3%
EV/u
0.303
Stake
0.98u
Won
+0.86u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
Opposing
Odds
1.83
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.44u
Won
+0.37u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles
Primary
Odds
2.02
Prob
60.1%
EV/u
0.147
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.60u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Opposing
Odds
1.85
Prob
41.3%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.50u
Won
+0.42u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Opposing
Odds
1.68
Prob
31.5%
EV/u
0.243
Stake
1.20u
Lost
-1.20u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
Primary
Odds
2.10
Prob
58.9%
EV/u
0.139
Stake
0.63u
Won
+0.69u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Primary
Odds
1.91
Prob
59.8%
EV/u
0.132
Stake
0.58u
Lost
-0.58u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
Primary
Odds
2.45
Prob
56.5%
EV/u
0.096
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.48u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Primary
Odds
2.45
Prob
62.1%
EV/u
0.244
Stake
0.84u
Lost
-0.84u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Texas Rangers
Opposing
Odds
1.89
Prob
36.9%
EV/u
0.196
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.33u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
Primary
Odds
1.87
Prob
63.1%
EV/u
0.190
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.31u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
San Francisco Giants
Primary
Odds
2.00
Prob
58.8%
EV/u
0.122
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
Opposing
Odds
1.87
Prob
38.1%
EV/u
0.167
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Angels
Opposing
Odds
1.78
Prob
28.3%
EV/u
0.321
Stake
0.50u
Won
+0.39u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Boston Red Sox
Primary
Odds
2.15
Prob
57.9%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
Primary
Odds
2.00
Prob
58.6%
EV/u
0.117
Stake
0.59u
Won
+0.59u
Nrfi yrfi
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
Primary
Odds
1.95
Prob
59.5%
EV/u
0.139
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.