Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 15, 2026 11:17 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.67
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.49
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.083
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.63
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.179
Stake
0.61u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.56
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.152
Stake
0.55u
Won
+0.86u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.57
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.430
Stake
0.60u
Lost
-0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.64
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.047
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.070
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.41
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.05
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.200
Stake
0.54u
Won
+1.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.100
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.214
Stake
0.56u
Lost
-0.56u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.78
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.095
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.95
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.167
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.63
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
away
Odds
3.25
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.270
Stake
0.66u
Won
+1.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.166
Stake
0.47u
Won
+0.94u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.078
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.58
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.024
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.121
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.64
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.045
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
2.62
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.035
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.178
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.020
Stake
0.10u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.065
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.095
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.102
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.83
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.120
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.70u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.69
Prob
45.6%
EV/u
0.061
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.88
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.130
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.78
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.093
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.42
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.052
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.40u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.09
Prob
51.6%
EV/u
0.031
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.08u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
15.9%
EV/u
0.778
Stake
1.05u
Won
+1.61u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.89
Prob
37.0%
EV/u
0.240
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 3 innings
mlb
Athletics
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
1.95
Prob
57.4%
EV/u
0.066
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.18u
First 3 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
home
Odds
1.55
Prob
76.6%
EV/u
0.125
Stake
0.60u
Won
+0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.13
Prob
68.0%
EV/u
0.345
Stake
1.20u
Won
+1.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
36.8%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
68.1%
EV/u
0.211
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 3 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.02
Prob
75.3%
EV/u
0.408
Stake
1.20u
Won
+1.22u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.49
Prob
15.5%
EV/u
0.654
Stake
1.03u
Won
+1.53u
First 3 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Boston Red Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
66.8%
EV/u
0.261
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
35.6%
EV/u
0.064
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.94
Prob
38.8%
EV/u
0.180
Stake
0.37u
Won
+0.72u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Athletics
home
Odds
2.13
Prob
68.3%
EV/u
0.351
Stake
1.20u
Lost
-1.20u
First 3 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
67.5%
EV/u
0.234
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.84u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.19
Prob
51.6%
EV/u
0.075
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.36u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.13
Prob
75.4%
EV/u
0.479
Stake
1.20u
Lost
-1.20u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
1.82
Prob
69.4%
EV/u
0.189
Stake
0.80u
Won
+0.66u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.39
Prob
48.1%
EV/u
0.092
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.29
Prob
54.8%
EV/u
0.181
Stake
0.59u
Lost
-0.59u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.49
Prob
62.7%
EV/u
0.442
Stake
0.99u
Won
+1.48u
First 3 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
3.48
Prob
56.4%
EV/u
0.902
Stake
1.50u
Lost
-1.50u
First 3 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
St. Louis Cardinals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.093
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 3 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
San Diego Padres
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
64.6%
EV/u
0.343
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
3.34
Prob
35.5%
EV/u
0.164
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.91u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
home
Odds
1.64
Prob
75.4%
EV/u
0.167
Stake
0.80u
Won
+0.51u
First 3 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
1.98
Prob
59.4%
EV/u
0.115
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
22.9%
EV/u
0.280
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Chicago White Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
16.9%
EV/u
1.001
Stake
0.64u
Lost
-0.64u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
12.8%
EV/u
0.734
Stake
0.64u
Lost
-0.64u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
10.8%
EV/u
0.416
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.63
Prob
36.7%
EV/u
0.619
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cleveland Guardians
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
13.8%
EV/u
0.894
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Chicago White Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
23.4%
EV/u
0.743
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 3 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
28.6%
EV/u
1.102
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
27.3%
EV/u
1.149
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
27.0%
EV/u
1.772
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
18.2%
EV/u
0.732
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 3 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
16.2%
EV/u
1.158
Stake
0.28u
Lost
-0.28u
First 3 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
16.7%
EV/u
1.252
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
11.8%
EV/u
1.050
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
12.5%
EV/u
1.042
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Athletics
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
37.6%
EV/u
0.775
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
5.6%
EV/u
1.110
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
19.7%
EV/u
0.872
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
23.6%
EV/u
1.290
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 3 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago White Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
10.1%
EV/u
0.846
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Boston Red Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
12.0%
EV/u
0.712
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.64u
First 3 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Texas Rangers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
16.3%
EV/u
1.159
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 3 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
10.7%
EV/u
1.298
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
11.4%
EV/u
1.065
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 3 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Kansas City Royals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
17.5%
EV/u
0.921
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 3 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
1.102
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Guardians
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
9.5%
EV/u
0.891
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.73u
First 3 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Kansas City Royals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
31.7%
EV/u
1.597
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Boston Red Sox
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
18.7%
EV/u
0.898
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.76u
First 3 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Athletics
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
18.2%
EV/u
0.910
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.78u
First 3 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
24.1%
EV/u
1.258
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
17.7%
EV/u
1.123
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.76u
First 3 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Washington Nationals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
17.6%
EV/u
1.125
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.76u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
15.1%
EV/u
1.294
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
17.1%
EV/u
0.935
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.59u
First 3 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Tampa Bay Rays
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
9.5%
EV/u
1.100
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.81u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
18.7%
EV/u
0.902
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Detroit Tigers
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
18.3%
EV/u
0.756
Stake
0.26u
Won
+0.73u
First 3 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Guardians
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
26.2%
EV/u
1.803
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
First 3 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
15.8%
EV/u
0.686
Stake
0.22u
Won
+0.62u
First 3 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Kansas City Royals
draw
Odds
3.80
Prob
26.6%
EV/u
1.171
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.92u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.