Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 14, 2026 11:14 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
3.28
Prob
39.2%
EV/u
0.354
Stake
0.84u
Lost
-0.84u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.053
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
2.86
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.164
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.31
Prob
41.1%
EV/u
0.255
Stake
0.61u
Lost
-0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
44.5%
EV/u
0.138
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.86
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.117
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.51
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
0.029
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.64
Prob
40.3%
EV/u
0.055
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.46
Prob
30.3%
EV/u
0.036
Stake
0.23u
Won
+0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
42.7%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.45
Prob
34.2%
EV/u
0.034
Stake
0.22u
Won
+0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Guardians
away
Odds
2.49
Prob
35.1%
EV/u
0.061
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.26
Prob
51.0%
EV/u
0.095
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.97
Prob
40.4%
EV/u
0.198
Stake
0.56u
Won
+1.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.87
Prob
42.8%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.53
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.033
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.88
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.140
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.78
Prob
39.4%
EV/u
0.141
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
47.1%
EV/u
0.029
Stake
0.11u
Won
+0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.73
Prob
40.5%
EV/u
0.088
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
2.54
Prob
37.6%
EV/u
0.064
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
39.5%
EV/u
0.110
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.84
Prob
39.3%
EV/u
0.186
Stake
0.57u
Lost
-0.57u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.84
Prob
41.0%
EV/u
0.098
Stake
0.31u
Lost
-0.31u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.52
Prob
37.4%
EV/u
0.065
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.64
Prob
38.4%
EV/u
0.107
Stake
0.38u
Won
+0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
2.77
Prob
42.2%
EV/u
0.148
Stake
0.48u
Won
+0.85u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.71
Prob
42.4%
EV/u
0.041
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
home
Odds
2.54
Prob
43.9%
EV/u
0.097
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.91
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.78u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
46.0%
EV/u
0.131
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
2.59
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.027
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
2.73
Prob
44.5%
EV/u
0.135
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
44.6%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.315
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.17
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.270
Stake
0.34u
Won
+0.74u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.147
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.86
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.576
Stake
0.37u
Won
+1.06u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
home
Odds
2.37
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.071
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.81
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.306
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
2.35
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.063
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
2.61
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.049
Stake
0.13u
Won
+0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.050
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
3.37
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.349
Stake
0.62u
Lost
-0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
3.27
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.303
Stake
0.57u
Won
+1.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
home
Odds
2.31
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.047
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
2.64
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.29
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.314
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.106
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.87
Prob
47.8%
EV/u
0.154
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.72
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.265
Stake
0.42u
Won
+0.72u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.595
Stake
0.38u
Won
+1.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.126
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.60
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.047
Stake
0.07u
Won
+0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.36
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.12u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
2.89
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.160
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.60u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.04
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.219
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
2.87
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.334
Stake
0.65u
Won
+1.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
away
Odds
3.23
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.290
Stake
0.45u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.62
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.053
Stake
0.05u
Lost
-0.05u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
away
Odds
3.57
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.464
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
3.26
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.502
Stake
0.83u
Lost
-0.83u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
home
Odds
3.24
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.498
Stake
0.91u
Won
+2.04u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.71
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.091
Stake
0.17u
Lost
-0.17u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
2.59
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.043
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.63
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.061
Stake
0.11u
Lost
-0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays
away
Odds
3.21
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.292
Stake
0.54u
Won
+1.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
away
Odds
2.54
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.029
Stake
0.14u
Lost
-0.14u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.31
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.048
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.52
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.177
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
3.37
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.557
Stake
0.64u
Lost
-0.64u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.24
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.300
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.34
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.060
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.46
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.108
Stake
0.15u
Lost
-0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
2.93
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.176
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
away
Odds
2.68
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.08u
Lost
-0.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.77
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.114
Stake
0.12u
Lost
-0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.236
Stake
0.35u
Won
+0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.31
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.324
Stake
0.37u
Lost
-0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.63
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.226
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
3.11
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.441
Stake
0.55u
Lost
-0.55u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.94
Prob
47.3%
EV/u
0.358
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.36
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.071
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.11u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Miami Marlins
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.208
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.16
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.266
Stake
0.33u
Won
+0.71u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
2.93
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.174
Stake
0.21u
Lost
-0.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.68
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.245
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
home
Odds
2.37
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.072
Stake
0.09u
Won
+0.12u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.73
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.271
Stake
0.49u
Won
+0.85u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.29
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.318
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
3.21
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.486
Stake
0.68u
Won
+1.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.71
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.094
Stake
0.11u
Won
+0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Minnesota Twins
home
Odds
2.71
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.260
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.78
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.551
Stake
0.36u
Won
+1.00u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
away
Odds
3.31
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.326
Stake
0.39u
Won
+0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Texas Rangers
home
Odds
2.51
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.23u
Lost
-0.23u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
home
Odds
2.72
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.264
Stake
0.40u
Won
+0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
0.183
Stake
0.43u
Won
+0.75u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.75
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.114
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
3.22
Prob
47.0%
EV/u
0.233
Stake
0.47u
Won
+1.04u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.