Case Archive
Historical Audit
Complete searchable history of model recommendations and backtest performance.
Last synced: Jul 14, 2026 11:14 PM EDT
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
44.6%
EV/u
0.593
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
43.6%
EV/u
0.576
Stake
0.38u
Lost
-0.38u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.096
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.168
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
47.4%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.45u
Lost
-0.45u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.285
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.191
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
39.8%
EV/u
1.076
Stake
0.42u
Lost
-0.42u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.238
Stake
0.41u
Won
+0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.393
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.00
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.08u
Won
+0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
2.35
Prob
34.6%
EV/u
0.102
Stake
0.19u
Won
+0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
4.70
Prob
49.9%
EV/u
0.655
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
4.60
Prob
43.3%
EV/u
0.883
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.260
Stake
0.47u
Won
+1.08u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
New York Mets
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
45.1%
EV/u
0.628
Stake
0.35u
Lost
-0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.119
Stake
0.20u
Lost
-0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
46.7%
EV/u
0.578
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.136
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
2.90
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.113
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.469
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
3.00
Prob
45.0%
EV/u
0.321
Stake
0.69u
Lost
-0.69u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
2.45
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.082
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
home
Odds
3.60
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.463
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
away
Odds
4.80
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.816
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.50
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.124
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
39.2%
EV/u
0.567
Stake
0.29u
Lost
-0.29u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.212
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
5.00
Prob
41.9%
EV/u
1.094
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.386
Stake
0.65u
Lost
-0.65u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.068
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay Rays
home
Odds
4.80
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
1.155
Stake
0.39u
Lost
-0.39u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
4.40
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.592
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
41.2%
EV/u
0.730
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.351
Stake
0.49u
Lost
-0.49u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.525
Stake
0.36u
Won
+1.04u
First 5 innings
mlb
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.613
Stake
0.44u
Lost
-0.44u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
45.8%
EV/u
0.191
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.35u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.788
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Detroit Tigers
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.24u
Lost
-0.24u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.6%
EV/u
0.192
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
4.20
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.878
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.587
Stake
0.41u
Lost
-0.41u
First 5 innings
mlb
Seattle Mariners
Cincinnati Reds
home
Odds
4.00
Prob
46.3%
EV/u
0.853
Stake
0.30u
Won
+0.90u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Indians
home
Odds
2.65
Prob
44.4%
EV/u
0.158
Stake
0.18u
Lost
-0.18u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.161
Stake
0.19u
Lost
-0.19u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
home
Odds
2.90
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.254
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
48.5%
EV/u
0.329
Stake
0.46u
Lost
-0.46u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.55
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.182
Stake
0.24u
Won
+0.37u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.10
Prob
43.8%
EV/u
0.331
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
3.40
Prob
42.1%
EV/u
0.401
Stake
0.42u
Won
+1.01u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
4.80
Prob
35.8%
EV/u
0.719
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.80u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Dodgers
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.105
Stake
0.09u
Lost
-0.09u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
53.1%
EV/u
0.352
Stake
0.54u
Lost
-0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Washington Nationals
home
Odds
2.80
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.118
Stake
0.10u
Lost
-0.10u
First 5 innings
mlb
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.75
Prob
49.0%
EV/u
0.319
Stake
0.44u
Won
+0.77u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Diego Padres
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
44.2%
EV/u
0.557
Stake
0.53u
Won
+1.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
away
Odds
2.80
Prob
47.7%
EV/u
0.170
Stake
0.22u
Lost
-0.22u
First 5 innings
mlb
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
home
Odds
3.50
Prob
46.6%
EV/u
0.632
Stake
0.62u
Lost
-0.62u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
home
Odds
3.90
Prob
37.2%
EV/u
0.452
Stake
0.43u
Lost
-0.43u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
home
Odds
4.30
Prob
40.6%
EV/u
0.744
Stake
0.28u
Won
+0.92u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
4.60
Prob
44.9%
EV/u
0.873
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
home
Odds
2.70
Prob
44.7%
EV/u
0.185
Stake
0.13u
Lost
-0.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Miami Marlins
Kansas City Royals
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.515
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
45.4%
EV/u
0.671
Stake
0.42u
Won
+1.13u
First 5 innings
mlb
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
away
Odds
4.20
Prob
44.6%
EV/u
0.801
Stake
0.31u
Won
+0.99u
First 5 innings
mlb
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
40.2%
EV/u
0.236
Stake
0.32u
Won
+0.53u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
42.3%
EV/u
0.232
Stake
0.29u
Won
+0.54u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
2.85
Prob
44.6%
EV/u
0.224
Stake
0.27u
Lost
-0.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
4.30
Prob
47.5%
EV/u
0.761
Stake
0.27u
Won
+0.89u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
home
Odds
2.60
Prob
50.9%
EV/u
0.296
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
4.20
Prob
53.9%
EV/u
0.480
Stake
0.18u
Won
+0.58u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
away
Odds
3.40
Prob
45.7%
EV/u
0.386
Stake
0.47u
Lost
-0.47u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
home
Odds
2.40
Prob
47.2%
EV/u
0.080
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.10
Prob
41.0%
EV/u
0.348
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.396
Stake
0.50u
Lost
-0.50u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
away
Odds
2.40
Prob
40.1%
EV/u
0.085
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.20u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Detroit Tigers
away
Odds
2.30
Prob
41.6%
EV/u
0.042
Stake
0.07u
Lost
-0.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
away
Odds
3.20
Prob
46.8%
EV/u
0.316
Stake
0.48u
Lost
-0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
away
Odds
3.70
Prob
43.4%
EV/u
0.571
Stake
0.47u
Won
+1.27u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.60
Prob
46.1%
EV/u
0.483
Stake
0.41u
Won
+1.07u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
away
Odds
2.50
Prob
44.1%
EV/u
0.205
Stake
0.40u
Lost
-0.40u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
45.9%
EV/u
0.229
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
away
Odds
4.00
Prob
43.1%
EV/u
0.714
Stake
0.32u
Lost
-0.32u
First 5 innings
mlb
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
away
Odds
2.05
Prob
34.4%
EV/u
0.093
Stake
0.14u
Won
+0.15u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
4.40
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
1.011
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
2.70
Prob
46.4%
EV/u
0.212
Stake
0.36u
Won
+0.61u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
4.20
Prob
43.7%
EV/u
0.964
Stake
0.34u
Lost
-0.34u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
4.40
Prob
42.6%
EV/u
0.990
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
5.00
Prob
41.5%
EV/u
1.239
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
away
Odds
4.10
Prob
41.4%
EV/u
0.799
Stake
0.36u
Lost
-0.36u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
45.3%
EV/u
0.184
Stake
0.21u
Won
+0.48u
First 5 innings
mlb
Pittsburgh Pirates
Miami Marlins
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
45.5%
EV/u
0.287
Stake
0.25u
Lost
-0.25u
First 5 innings
mlb
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
away
Odds
2.65
Prob
45.2%
EV/u
0.193
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
42.0%
EV/u
0.701
Stake
0.30u
Lost
-0.30u
First 5 innings
mlb
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
away
Odds
3.90
Prob
44.3%
EV/u
0.572
Stake
0.26u
Lost
-0.26u
First 5 innings
mlb
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
away
Odds
4.40
Prob
50.3%
EV/u
0.627
Stake
0.16u
Lost
-0.16u
First 5 innings
mlb
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
home
Odds
3.20
Prob
56.6%
EV/u
0.760
Stake
0.55u
Won
+1.21u
First 5 innings
mlb
Atlanta Braves
Toronto Blue Jays
away
Odds
3.30
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.570
Stake
0.33u
Lost
-0.33u
First 5 innings
mlb
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
away
Odds
3.50
Prob
41.7%
EV/u
0.446
Stake
0.20u
Won
+0.50u
* These predictions were generated during model backtesting and represent the model's performance on historical data.