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AD TEST MODE
LEDGER HEADER
Mock Placement 728x90
Net Units P&L — Recommended Picks
+0.0u
kelly-staked • all sports • cumulative
Win Rate
0.0%
settled bets only
Return On Investment
0.0%
per unit wagered
Bets Placed
0
recommended picks
Bets Won
0
settled winners
Bets Lost
0
settled losers
Pending
0
awaiting result
Current Streak
W3
3 wins running
Tracking Active
0d
00h
00m
00s
Mar 27, 2026
Best Win Streak
W9
Supporter+ only
Worst Loss Streak
L4
Supporter+ only
Counterfactual — Walk-Forward Backtest, Same Window
what the current pipeline's walk-forward backtest would have recommended over the same dates — separate from the live ROI above per immutability rules
Live (placed)
+46.45u
1476 bets · 7.49% ROI
Backtest (counterfactual)
+11,232.17u
71517 bets · +31.11% ROI
Staked (counterfactual)
36,099.87u
walk-forward Kelly
Why the gap? The live ledger reflects what the model recommended at the time it ran — config, thresholds, and model artifacts as they existed each day. The backtest uses today's training + today's policy applied walk-forward (no future-data leakage by fold construction). Recent pipeline fixes (injury contamination, side-flip floors, tier-mask sweeps) are reflected in the backtest but apply only forward-going in the live ledger.
Important — do not bet to the backtest number. Backtest ROI is structurally higher than live ROI in this system because (a) the backtest evaluates a single candidate model while production serves a stacked ensemble whose distribution differs, (b) model and policy selection over the same history introduces survivorship bias even with walk-forward folds, and (c) the backtest assumes the recommended price is fillable, which is only sometimes true at game-time. Treat the backtest as a sanity check on signal direction, not as a forecast of forward ROI. The live ledger is the system of record (master.md Rule 9); this strip is informational only.
Important — do not bet to the backtest number. Backtest ROI is structurally higher than live ROI in this system because (a) the backtest evaluates a single candidate model while production serves a stacked ensemble whose distribution differs, (b) model and policy selection over the same history introduces survivorship bias even with walk-forward folds, and (c) the backtest assumes the recommended price is fillable, which is only sometimes true at game-time. Treat the backtest as a sanity check on signal direction, not as a forecast of forward ROI. The live ledger is the system of record (master.md Rule 9); this strip is informational only.
Backtest coverage in this window
● UEFA Champions League 1670 bets (through 2026-04-15) · La Liga 3808 bets (through 2026-05-17) · Liga MX 1570 bets (through 2026-05-10) · Ligue 1 3502 bets (through 2026-04-10) · College Basketball (M) 2343 bets (through 2026-03-05) · MLB Baseball 35357 bets (through 2026-06-23) · MLS 3562 bets (through 2026-05-10) · NBA Basketball 4318 bets (through 2026-04-08) · NFL Football 1542 bets (through 2026-01-10) · NHL Hockey 981 bets (through 2026-05-29) · Primeira Liga 2992 bets (through 2026-04-19) · Serie B 2718 bets (through 2026-05-08) · Serie A 6254 bets (through 2026-05-10) · WNBA Basketball 816 bets (through 2026-06-08) · FIFA World Cup 84 bets (through 2022-12-18)
● Not in backtest: College Football, UFC / MMA, GOLF-PGA — backtest folds for these sports are blocked by the locked OOS holdout (WNBA: 2026 season is all inside the 30-day holdout; UFC: step×validation math caps folds ≈7 weeks behind today). Their live bets are counted on the left strip but contribute 0 to the backtest comparison until folds catch up. Live tracking is the only forward signal for these sports right now.
● Not in backtest: College Football, UFC / MMA, GOLF-PGA — backtest folds for these sports are blocked by the locked OOS holdout (WNBA: 2026 season is all inside the 30-day holdout; UFC: step×validation math caps folds ≈7 weeks behind today). Their live bets are counted on the left strip but contribute 0 to the backtest comparison until folds catch up. Live tracking is the only forward signal for these sports right now.
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