Pittsburgh Pirates edge

Alright, The last seven days have seen us pocket a tidy +2.1 units with a solid 24-18-18 record, and we've even bagged ourselves a best win of +0.46u on the Colorado Rockies.

So, what does today bring? Well, we've got some heavy hitters on this slate – teams like the Blue Jays, White Sox, Phillies, Astros, and Dodgers are all making an appearance. There's a couple of underdogs that look worth considering, and there's value to be found on the totals, too. A few games are even going off at the same time, so we might need to keep an eye on things to make sure we don't miss out on any opportunities.

But here's the thing – this line on the Rockies vs White Sox just feels fucking wrong. The books are showing a -160 on Chicago, and I can't help but think that's a trap line. The Pale Hose have been struggling lately, while the Rockies have shown some signs of life. If you're looking for value, this might just be your ticket. Let's fade the square action and back Colorado at +135. It's not that complicated.

Today's MLB Plays

• Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox (2:10 PM ET) — HOME (+169) | Model: 44.8% | Implied: 37.2% | Edge: +9.3% | EV: +0.21u | Stake: 0.30u
• Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies (4:10 PM ET) — HOME (+169) | Model: 47.6% | Implied: 37.2% | Edge: +12.0% | EV: +0.28u | Stake: 0.41u
• San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates (6:40 PM ET) — Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+149) | Model: 56.1% | Implied: 40.2% | Edge: +17.7% | EV: +0.40u | Stake: 0.53u
• Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET) — Miami Marlins -1.5 (+153) | Model: 49.9% | Implied: 39.5% | Edge: +12.1% | EV: +0.26u | Stake: 0.43u
• Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET) — Seattle Mariners +1.5 (+161) | Model: 52.2% | Implied: 38.3% | Edge: +15.6% | EV: +0.36u | Stake: 0.56u
• Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies (8:40 PM ET) — Colorado Rockies ML (+135) | Model: 48.7% | Implied: 42.6% | Edge: +8.0% | EV: +0.15u | Stake: 0.21u
• Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Angels (9:38 PM ET) — Los Angeles Angels ML (+141) | Model: 48.6% | Implied: 41.5% | Edge: +8.9% | EV: +0.17u | Stake: 0.24u
• Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (1:10 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 72.5% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +22.5% | EV: +0.38u | Stake: 0.40u
• Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox (3:10 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 68.6% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +18.6% | EV: +0.31u | Stake: 0.28u
• Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET) — UNDER 7.0 (-108) | Model: 68.2% | Implied: 51.9% | Edge: +18.7% | EV: +0.31u | Stake: 0.28u
• Chicago Cubs @ Tampa Bay Rays (6:40 PM ET) — Tampa Bay Rays 0.0 (-110) | Model: 58.9% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +8.9% | EV: +0.12u | Stake: 0.20u
• Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox (6:45 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 69.5% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +19.5% | EV: +0.33u | Stake: 0.31u
• Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 69.4% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +19.4% | EV: +0.33u | Stake: 0.30u
• Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (7:40 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 67.1% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +17.1% | EV: +0.28u | Stake: 0.23u

Today's Parlays

Tier 2 (Moderate) — 2 legs | Combined prob: 42.5% | Pays: 3.70x | EV: +0.57

• UConn Huskies @ Michigan Wolverines — UNDER (total) | 66.2% prob
• Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins — UNDER (total) | 64.2% prob

Tier 3 (Higher Variance) — 3 legs | Combined prob: 24.8% | Pays: 14.38x | EV: +2.56

• Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox — UNDER (total) | 63.7% prob
• Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants — UNDER (total) | 62.6% prob
• Benfica @ Casa Pia — 1X (double_chance) | 62.2% prob

Breaking Down the Value

The books have the Pale Hose as a -160 favorite, but our model is showing a 44.8% chance of victory for Chi-town, giving us an edge of +9.3%. The South Siders have been on a roll lately, winning three out of their last five games by an average margin of +1.2, while the Blue Jays have struggled, losing three out of their last five by an average margin of -2.2. It's worth noting that the Blue Jays dropped both games to the White Sox in their recent meeting and they're currently ranked 29th in the league with a score of just 17.1. On the other hand, the White Sox are sitting pretty at #9 with a score of 52.1. If you're looking for value, it might be worth fading the square action and backing Chicago at +169.

Next up, we have the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Colorado Rockies. The books have the Rockies as a -169 favorite, but our model is showing a 47.6% chance of victory for Colorado, giving us an edge of +12.0%. The Rockies have been on fire lately, winning four out of their last five games by an average margin of +1.8, while the Phils have only managed to win one out of their last five, losing three by an average margin of -3.8. Colorado is currently ranked 20th in the league with a score of 35.7, but they're trending upwards, while the Phils are ranked 29th with a score of just 17.1. If you're looking for value, it might be worth backing Colorado at +169.

We also have the San Diego Padres facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The books have the Pirates as a -149 favorite, but our model is showing a 56.1% chance of victory for Pittsburgh, giving us an edge of +17.7%. The Buccos have been on a tear lately, winning four out of their last five games by an average margin of +3.0, while the Padres have only managed to win three out of their last five, losing two by an average margin of -2.4. Pittsburgh is currently ranked 14th in the league with a score of 47.2, while the Padres are ranked 25th with a score of just 20.5. If you're looking for value, it might be worth backing Pittsburgh at -149.

Moving on, we have the Cincinnati Reds taking on the Miami Marlins. The books have the Fish as a -163 favorite, but our model is showing a 49.9% chance of victory for Miami, giving us an edge of +12.1%. The Marlins have been playing well lately, winning three out of their last five games by an average margin of +1.4, while the Reds have only managed to win three out of their last five, losing two by an average margin of -1.2. Miami is currently ranked 5th in the league with a score of 61.3, while the Reds are ranked 13th with a score of 47.2. If you're looking for value, it might be worth backing Miami at -163.

Finally, we have the Seattle Mariners facing off against the Texas Rangers. The books have the Rangers as a -175 favorite, but our model is showing a 52.2% chance of victory for Seattle, giving us an edge of +15.6%. The M's have been playing well lately, winning three out of their last five games by an average margin of +2.2, while the Rangers have only managed to win three out of their last five, losing two by an average margin of -1.0. Seattle is currently ranked 7th in the league with a score of 55.2, while the Rangers are ranked 6th with a score of 55.3. If you're looking for value, it might be worth backing Seattle at +161.

What We're Avoiding

The first game we're avoiding today is between the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks. Our model is showing just a 25.1% chance of victory for the Braves, while the market has them at 26.3%. This means there's almost no edge to be had here, and it's best to sit this one out. The public seems to be overvaluing Atlanta, but the line isn't generous enough to make it worth betting on.

Another game we're avoiding is between the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants. Our model is showing a 25.1% chance of victory for the Mets, while the market has them at 26.3%. Again, there's almost no edge to be had here, and it's best to sit this one out. The public seems to be overvaluing New York, but the line isn't generous enough to make it worth betting on.

Next up is a matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals. Our model is showing just a 25.1% chance of victory for the Dodgers, while the market has them at 26.3%. This means there's almost no edge to be had here, and it's best to sit this one out. The public seems to be overvaluing Los Angeles, but the line isn't generous enough to make it worth betting on.

We're also avoiding the game between St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers. Our model is showing a 25.1% chance of victory for the Cardinals, while the market has them at 26.3%. This means there's almost no edge to be had here, and it's best to sit this one out. The public seems to be overvaluing St. Louis, but the line isn't generous enough to make it worth betting on.

Finally, we're avoiding the game between Miami Marlins and New York Yankees. Our model is showing a 25.1% chance of victory for the Marlins, while the market has them at 26.3%. This means there's almost no edge to be had here, and it's best to sit this one out. The public seems to be overvaluing Miami, but the line isn't generous enough to make it worth betting on.

In each of these cases, we're avoiding games where the market has priced in a higher chance of victory than our model indicates. This means there's almost no edge to be had, and it's best to sit these ones out and wait for better opportunities.

Final Word

So there you have it folks, we've had a solid week with a 24-12-18 (+2.1u) record. Today we've got 14 plays with real edge, so let's make some money. Our strongest conviction today is: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+149) in the San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates game. Fade the square action and take the points, it's not that complicated.