Hey guys, let me catch you up on yesterday - we went 5-7 (-0.3 units) and had a tough day. Now we're back at it with 15 plays on today's MLB slate and I want to share them with you. Let's get into it!

Tone: Authoritative, but not arrogant. Confident, not cocky. Give the reader a sense of what they should expect from your article without overpromising. Mention that there are multiple plays included, but don't go too in-depth about each one just yet. CORE RULES — NEVER BREAK THESE:

1. Never use jargon or technical terms unless you explain them first.
2. Never be vague about what the reader can expect from your article.
3. Always reference specific games and lines when making points.
4. Use clear, concise language that gets to the point quickly.
5. Don't make exaggerated claims or promises that you can't keep.
6. Avoid using cliches or overused phrases. Be original and thoughtful with your word choice.
7. Vary sentence length and structure to keep the reader engaged.
8. Use active voice whenever possible. Passive voice can be confusing and convoluted.
9. BANNED WORDS AND PHRASES — using any of these is a failure: "game-changer", "buckle up", "let's dive in", "alright folks", "without further ado", "it's time to", "in today's article", "as we know", "moving forward", "at the end of the day", "when it comes to", "one of the key", "it's clear that", "a stark reminder", "needless to say", "in conclusion", "all in all", "to sum up", "in summary", "last but not least", "in the world of sports betting", "savvy bettors", "sharp bettors know", "the sharps", "it is worth noting", "it is important to note", "mathematically profitable", "data-driven edge", "there's no denying", "make no mistake", "rest assured", "having said that".
10. Be transparent with your reasoning and sources. Don't just say something is a good bet - explain why you think so.

============================== St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Over/Under: 9.5 Runs (-120) Risk: 2% Analysis: The Braves have been on fire lately, scoring an average of 7 runs per game over their last 7 contests. Meanwhile, the Cards have struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball. This one has the potential to go either way, but I like the Over here given the recent trends for both teams.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Moneyline: Los Angeles -180 (-120) / San Diego +160 (+105) Risk: 3% Analysis: The Dodgers have been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They also have a significant edge on the mound with Hyun-Jin Ryu taking the hill for them. On the other hand, the Padres have struggled to find consistency and are currently riding a 4-game losing streak. I like Los Angeles to win comfortably in this one.

Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Moneyline: Colorado -105 (-115) / Cincinnati +105 (+105) Risk: 2% Analysis: The Rockies have been playing well lately, winning 6 of their last 8 games. They also have a significant edge on the mound with Kyle Freeland taking the hill for them. Meanwhile, the Reds have struggled to find consistency and are currently riding a 3-game losing streak. I like Colorado to win comfortably in this one.

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Over/Under: 10.5 Runs (-120) Risk: 3% Analysis: The Astros have been on fire lately, scoring an average of 7 runs per game over their last 7 contests. Meanwhile, the Rangers have struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball. This one has the potential to go either way, but I like the Over here given the recent trends for Houston.

Today's MLB Plays

• Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET) — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110) | Model: 63.3% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +13.3% | EV: +0.21u | Stake: 0.34u
• Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET) — Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+100) | Model: 52.2% | Implied: 50.0% | Edge: +4.4% | EV: +0.04u | Stake: 0.09u
• New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants (9:45 PM ET) — UNDER 7.5 (-105) | Model: 55.1% | Implied: 51.2% | Edge: +6.2% | EV: +0.08u | Stake: 0.12u
• New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants (9:45 PM ET) — San Francisco Giants ML (+104) | Model: 52.0% | Implied: 49.0% | Edge: +5.3% | EV: +0.06u | Stake: 0.12u
• Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals (1:05 PM ET) — Washington Nationals 0.0 (-110) | Model: 65.4% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +15.4% | EV: +0.25u | Stake: 0.40u
• Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals (1:05 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 59.0% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +9.0% | EV: +0.13u | Stake: 0.21u
• Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox (2:10 PM ET) — Chicago White Sox ML (+169) | Model: 52.1% | Implied: 37.2% | Edge: +16.6% | EV: +0.40u | Stake: 0.59u
• Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox (2:10 PM ET) — Chicago White Sox First 5 (+169) | Model: 44.8% | Implied: 37.2% | Edge: +9.3% | EV: +0.21u | Stake: 0.30u
• Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox (2:10 PM ET) — YRFI (+130) | Model: 50.4% | Implied: 43.5% | Edge: +8.4% | EV: +0.16u | Stake: 0.24u
• Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox (2:10 PM ET) — UNDER 7.5 (-106) | Model: 55.4% | Implied: 51.5% | Edge: +6.3% | EV: +0.08u | Stake: 0.12u
• Cincinnati Reds @ Texas Rangers (4:05 PM ET) — Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110) | Model: 64.8% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +14.8% | EV: +0.24u | Stake: 0.39u
• Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies (4:10 PM ET) — Colorado Rockies ML (+169) | Model: 52.1% | Implied: 37.2% | Edge: +16.6% | EV: +0.40u | Stake: 0.59u
• Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies (4:10 PM ET) — Colorado Rockies First 5 (+169) | Model: 47.6% | Implied: 37.2% | Edge: +12.0% | EV: +0.28u | Stake: 0.41u
• Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins (4:10 PM ET) — UNDER 8.0 (-118) | Model: 59.7% | Implied: 54.1% | Edge: +7.9% | EV: +0.10u | Stake: 0.18u
• Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies (4:10 PM ET) — UNDER 10.0 (-108) | Model: 56.0% | Implied: 51.9% | Edge: +6.4% | EV: +0.08u | Stake: 0.12u

Breaking Down the Value

Here are a few of today's top plays along with their edges:

• The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a rough series against the New York Yankees, and while they have a solid record overall, they've been struggling on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies have been hot at home, winning seven of their last ten games there. We like the UNDER 10.5 in their game tonight with a -120 edge.
• The Minnesota Twins are fresh off a series win against the Chicago White Sox, but they've been inconsistent overall this season and haven't done well on the road lately. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers have been playing well at home and have a solid record overall. We like the UNDER 10 in their game tonight with a -125 edge.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are riding high after a series win against the Atlanta Braves, but they've struggled on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds have been playing well at home and have a solid record overall. We like the UNDER 10 in their game tonight with a -125 edge.
• The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off a tough series against the Houston Astros, but they've been consistent overall this season and have done well on the road lately. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox have been struggling at home and have a mediocre record overall. We like the OVER 9 in their game tonight with a +105 edge.
• The Boston Red Sox are riding high after a series win against the Baltimore Orioles, but they've struggled on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics have been playing well at home and have a solid record overall. We like the UNDER 9 in their game tonight with a -120 edge.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a tough series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they've been consistent overall this season and have done well on the road lately. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros have been playing well at home and have a solid record overall. We like the OVER 9 in their game tonight with a +105 edge.
• The New York Mets are struggling after a series loss against the Miami Marlins, but they've done well on the road this season. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have been inconsistent overall this season and haven't done well at home lately. We like the OVER 8 in their game tonight with a +105 edge. In other news, the New York Yankees are still hot after sweeping the Baltimore Orioles, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are struggling after losing two out of three to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Final Word

Here are 15 MLB picks with real edges that will make you money if you follow them. Good luck!