All Sports Performance

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

ATP Tour

tennis • Performance Deep Dive

Trained 2d ago Predicted 2w ago

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.

All-Time Average (587 folds)

Flat ROI

-0.9%

Hit Rate

41.6%

-10.8pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Apr 22–May 31, 2026 ) ↓ Declining

Flat ROI

-4.5%

-3.7pp vs avg

Hit Rate

38.5%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

63.1%

Avg across 587 folds

AUC-ROC

0.678

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6317

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2219

Probability calibration

587 validation folds

Jan 17, 2000 – May 31, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Jun 12, 2026 – Jul 12, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.663

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI

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Recommendation Win Rate

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Universe ROI

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Universe Win Rate

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Model: XGBoostModel

Calibration: platt