All Sports Performance

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

College Football

football • Performance Deep Dive

Trained 5h ago Predicted Never

All-Time Average (45 folds)

Flat ROI

+19.2%

Hit Rate

37.5%

-14.9pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Oct 25–Dec 5, 2025 ) ↑ Improving

Flat ROI

+24.2%

+5pp vs avg

Hit Rate

40.8%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

61.2%

Avg across 45 folds

AUC-ROC

0.586

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6480

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2287

Probability calibration

45 validation folds

Sep 18, 2021 – Dec 5, 2025

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Dec 12, 2025 – Jan 9, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.367

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI

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Recommendation Win Rate

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Universe ROI

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Universe Win Rate

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Model: CatBoostModel

Calibration: platt

All-Time Average (45 folds)

Flat ROI

+25.8%

Hit Rate

65%

+12.6pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Oct 25–Dec 5, 2025 ) ↓ Declining

Flat ROI

+3.5%

-22.2pp vs avg

Hit Rate

52.8%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

55.9%

Avg across 45 folds

AUC-ROC

0.578

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6806

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2439

Probability calibration

45 validation folds

Sep 18, 2021 – Dec 5, 2025

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Dec 12, 2025 – Jan 9, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.365

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

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Model: XGBoostModel

Calibration: platt

All-Time Average (44 folds)

Flat ROI

+31.7%

Hit Rate

68.6%

+16.2pp vs b/e

Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Oct 25–Dec 5, 2025 ) ↓ Declining

Flat ROI

+22.1%

-9.6pp vs avg

Hit Rate

63.9%

Out-of-sample Accuracy

56.6%

Avg across 44 folds

AUC-ROC

0.580

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6815

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2443

Probability calibration

44 validation folds

Sep 18, 2021 – Dec 5, 2025

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Dec 12, 2025 – Jan 9, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.509

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter

Model: XGBoostModel

Calibration: platt