AFL

other • Performance Deep Dive

Trained 3w ago Predicted Never

All-Time Average (94 folds)

Flat ROI

—

Hit Rate

—

Recent Trend (last 0 folds · Apr 18–May 29, 2026 )

Flat ROI

—

Hit Rate

—

Out-of-sample Accuracy

58.5%

Avg across 94 folds

AUC-ROC

0.676

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss

0.6693

Lower is better

Brier Score

0.2380

Probability calibration

94 validation folds

May 13, 2017 – May 29, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal. Period: Jun 7, 2026 – Jul 5, 2026

Holdout AUC

0.637

0.5 = coin flip

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+

Recommendation ROI

�

Recommendation Win Rate

�

Universe ROI

�

Universe Win Rate

�

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter

Model: XGBoostModel

Calibration: platt

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.

No backtest data yet

The model hasn't been run for this market yet. Data will appear here once the pipeline has been executed.