Spread Betting Explained: What Does ATS Mean?
Point spreads level the playing field between favourites and underdogs. Learn what ATS means, how covers work, and why SherlockPicks tracks spread performance separately.
What is a point spread?
A point spread is the sportsbook's attempt to level the playing field between two mismatched teams by giving the underdog a head start. Instead of just picking who wins, you are betting whether a team wins by more than a specified margin (the spread).
How it works: a concrete example
Chiefs vs Raiders. The spread is set at Chiefs −7.5.
- Bet Chiefs −7.5: The Chiefs must win by 8 or more points for you to win. If they win 17–10, you lose (only won by 7). If they win 21–10, you win (won by 11).
- Bet Raiders +7.5: You win if the Raiders lose by fewer than 8 points, or win outright. Raiders lose 17–10 → you win (lost by only 7). Raiders lose 21–10 → you lose.
The half-point (.5) eliminates the possibility of an exact tie (a "push") — one side always wins.
What does "ATS" mean?
ATS stands for "Against The Spread." It is the metric that measures how well a team performs relative to the spread — regardless of whether they win the game outright. A team can be 10–5 SU (straight up, win/loss record) but only 6–9 ATS if they consistently win by less than the spread demands.
ATS records are what sharp bettors track. A team's ATS record reveals patterns the moneyline does not: teams that cover even when they lose, teams that beat weak opposition but fail to cover against good defences, and patterns across home/away splits.
The run line and puck line
Baseball and hockey use fixed spread equivalents:
- Run line (MLB): Always −1.5 / +1.5. The favourite must win by 2+ runs; the underdog can lose by 1 and still cover.
- Puck line (NHL): Always −1.5 / +1.5. Same structure as the run line.
Because the spread is fixed, the odds adjust instead. A heavy favourite at −1.5 might be priced at −240 because covering is harder. An underdog at +1.5 might be priced at +180 because covering is easier.
Key spread betting concepts
- Cover
- A team "covers" when they beat the spread, regardless of whether they won or lost the game.
- Push
- When the margin exactly matches the spread (e.g., Chiefs win by exactly 7 and you bet −7). Your stake is returned, no profit or loss.
- Closing line
- The final spread right before the game starts, after all the market activity has been absorbed. Sharp bettors measure their performance by whether they beat the closing line (CLV — Closing Line Value).
- Line movement
- Spreads move as money comes in and sharp bettors take positions. A line that opens at −3.5 and moves to −6.5 has received significant sharp action on the favourite. Always check the current line before betting — SherlockPicks picks are generated against the line available at prediction time.
Why SherlockPicks tracks spread separately from moneyline
Spread and moneyline are distinct markets with different dynamics. A team can be profitable to bet on the moneyline but a consistent loser against the spread — if they win a lot of close games, for example. SherlockPicks trains separate models for each target (home_win, home_cover, total_over) and tracks ROI independently on the Performance page. This lets you choose which market type fits your sportsbook's line best.
Frequently Asked Questions
Covering the spread means a team beat the point spread, not just won the game. If a team is a 7-point favourite and wins by 10, they covered. If they only win by 3, they did not cover — even though they won the game outright.
SU (straight up) is a team's win/loss record — did they win the game? ATS (against the spread) is their record of covering the point spread. These are different: a dominant team that only wins by small margins might be great SU but terrible ATS.
A push occurs when the margin exactly equals the spread. For example, if the spread is −7 and the favourite wins by exactly 7 points, all bets are refunded — no winner, no loser. Half-point spreads (−7.5, +3.5, etc.) are used specifically to eliminate pushes.
The MLB run line is always fixed at −1.5/+1.5 — the spread does not change, the odds do. A heavy favourite at −1.5 might be priced at −240 because winning by 2 runs is harder to guarantee than winning outright. In contrast, point spreads in NFL/NBA adjust the number based on the matchup.
See EV and edge live
SherlockPicks calculates all of this automatically for every game, every day.